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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4178-3 |
Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs | |
Stryhal, Jan1,2; Huth, Radan1,2 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:1063-1075 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Czech Republic |
英文摘要 | Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulationexpected in future at global scaleis apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there. |
英文关键词 | Global climate models CMIP5 Projections Atmospheric circulation Circulation classifications |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460619200059 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE BLOCKING ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; CLIMATE MODELS ; ATLANTIC CIRCULATION ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; PATTERNS ; COLD ; CLASSIFICATIONS ; FREQUENCY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36028 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Charles Univ Prague, Fac Sci, Dept Phys Geog & Geoecol, Albertov 6, Prague 12843 2, Czech Republic; 2.Czech Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Bocni 2, Prague 14131 4, Czech Republic |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stryhal, Jan,Huth, Radan. Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:1063-1075. |
APA | Stryhal, Jan,&Huth, Radan.(2019).Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,1063-1075. |
MLA | Stryhal, Jan,et al."Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):1063-1075. |
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