Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-4003-4 |
The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai'i | |
Frazier, Abby G.1; Timm, Oliver Elison2; Giambelluca, Thomas W.3; Diaz, Henry F.3 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:2127-2140 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai'i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends. |
英文关键词 | Rainfall Hawai' i EOF analysis Attribution ENSO PDO |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442433200029 |
WOS关键词 | PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS ; EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION TRENDS ; VARIABILITY ; ATTRIBUTION ; ISLANDS ; NORTHERN ; WINTER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35927 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.US Forest Serv, USDA, Inst Pacific Islands Forestry, 60 Nowelo St, Hilo, HI 96720 USA; 2.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA; 3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Geog, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frazier, Abby G.,Timm, Oliver Elison,Giambelluca, Thomas W.,et al. The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai'i[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:2127-2140. |
APA | Frazier, Abby G.,Timm, Oliver Elison,Giambelluca, Thomas W.,&Diaz, Henry F..(2018).The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai'i.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,2127-2140. |
MLA | Frazier, Abby G.,et al."The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai'i".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):2127-2140. |
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