GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3443-6
An efficient statistical approach to multi-site downscaling of daily precipitation series in the context of climate change
Khalili, Malika; Van Thanh Van Nguyen
2017-10-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号49
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Canada
英文摘要

Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been extensively used in many climate change impact studies. However, the coarser resolution of these GCM outputs is not adequate to assess the potential effects of climate change on local scale. Downscaling techniques have thus been proposed to resolve this problem either by dynamical or statistical approaches. The statistical downscaling (SD) methods are widely privileged because of their simplicity of implementation and use. However, many of them ignore the observed spatial dependence between different locations, which significantly affects the impact study results. An improved multi-site SD approach is thus presented in this paper to downscaling of daily precipitation at many sites concurrently. This approach is based on a combination of multiple regression models for rainfall occurrences and amounts and the Singular Value Decomposition technique, which models the stochastic components of these regression models to preserve accurately the space-time statistical properties of the daily precipitation. Furthermore, this method was able to describe adequately the intermittency property of the precipitation processes. The proposed approach has been assessed using 10 rain gauges located in the southwest region of Quebec and southeast region of Ontario in Canada, and climate predictors from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research re-analysis data set. The results have indicated the ability of the proposed approach to reproduce accurately multiple observed statistical properties of the precipitation occurrences and amounts, the at-site temporal persistence, the spatial dependence between sites and the temporal variability and spatial intermittency of the precipitation processes.


英文关键词Climate change Statistical downscaling Regression models Precipitation Single value decomposition Multi-site stochastic simulation
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000410803300003
WOS关键词STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; NORTHERN CANADA ; TEMPERATURE ; MODEL ; SIMULATION ; REANALYSIS ; REGRESSION ; SELECTION ; IMPACTS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35671
专题气候变化
作者单位McGill Univ, Dept Civil Engn & Appl Mech, 817 Sherbrooke St West, Sherbrooke, PQ H3A 0C3, Canada
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GB/T 7714
Khalili, Malika,Van Thanh Van Nguyen. An efficient statistical approach to multi-site downscaling of daily precipitation series in the context of climate change[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49.
APA Khalili, Malika,&Van Thanh Van Nguyen.(2017).An efficient statistical approach to multi-site downscaling of daily precipitation series in the context of climate change.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49.
MLA Khalili, Malika,et al."An efficient statistical approach to multi-site downscaling of daily precipitation series in the context of climate change".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017).
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