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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3258-5 |
Identifying the predictable and unpredictable patterns of spring-to-autumn precipitation over eastern China | |
Ying, Kairan1; Zheng, Xiaogu1; Zhao, Tianbao1; Frederiksen, Carsten S.2,3; Quan, Xiao-Wei4,5 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Australia; USA |
英文摘要 | The patterns of interannual variability that arise from the slow (potentially predictable) and fast or intraseasonal (unpredictable) components of seasonal mean precipitation over eastern China are examined, based on observations from a network of 106 stations for the period 1951-2004. The analysis is done by using a variance decomposition method that allows identification of the sources of the predictability and the prediction uncertainty, from March-April-May (MAM) to September-October-November (SON). The average potential predictability (ratio of slow-to-total variance) of eastern China precipitation is generally moderate, with the highest value of 0.18 in June-July-August (JJA) and lowest value of 0.12 in April-May-June (AMJ). The leading predictable precipitation mode is significantly related to one-season-lead SST anomalies in the area of the Kuroshio Current during AMJ-to-JJA, the Indian-western Pacific SST in July-August-September (JAS), and the eastern tropical Pacific SST in MAM and SON. The prolonged linear trends, which are seen in the principal component time series associated with the second or third predictable precipitation modes in MJJ-to-ASO, also serve as a source of predictability for seasonal precipitation over eastern China. The predictive characteristics of the atmospheric circulation-precipitation relationship indicate that the western Pacific subtropical high plays a key role in eastern China precipitation. In addition, teleconnection patterns that are significantly related to the predictable precipitation component are also identified. The leading/second unpredictable precipitation modes from MAM to SON all show a monopole/dipole structure, which are accompanied by wavy circulation patterns that are related to intraseasonal events. |
英文关键词 | Potential predictability Predictable mode Unpredictable mode Kuroshio Current SST Indian Ocean SST ENSO Subtropical high |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399431900022 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ; ARCTIC-OSCILLATION ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; SOUTH CHINA ; EL-NINO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35636 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 3.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 4.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 5.NOAA, ESRL, PSD, Boulder, CO USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ying, Kairan,Zheng, Xiaogu,Zhao, Tianbao,et al. Identifying the predictable and unpredictable patterns of spring-to-autumn precipitation over eastern China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Ying, Kairan,Zheng, Xiaogu,Zhao, Tianbao,Frederiksen, Carsten S.,&Quan, Xiao-Wei.(2017).Identifying the predictable and unpredictable patterns of spring-to-autumn precipitation over eastern China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Ying, Kairan,et al."Identifying the predictable and unpredictable patterns of spring-to-autumn precipitation over eastern China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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