Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3717-7 |
The epistemological status of general circulation models | |
Loehle, Craig | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:1719-1731 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Forecasts of both likely anthropogenic effects on climate and consequent effects on nature and society are based on large, complex software tools called general circulation models (GCMs). Forecasts generated by GCMs have been used extensively in policy decisions related to climate change. However, the relation between underlying physical theories and results produced by GCMs is unclear. In the case of GCMs, many discretizations and approximations are made, and simulating Earth system processes is far from simple and currently leads to some results with unknown energy balance implications. Statistical testing of GCM forecasts for degree of agreement with data would facilitate assessment of fitness for use. If model results need to be put on an anomaly basis due to model bias, then both visual and quantitative measures of model fit depend strongly on the reference period used for normalization, making testing problematic. Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues. Rigorous reasoning entails carefully quantifying levels of uncertainty. |
英文关键词 | Climate change General circulation models Model testing Epistemology |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426707100014 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE MODELS ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; UNCERTAINTY ; EQUIVALENCE ; VALIDATION ; SIMULATION ; CMIP5 ; CONSTRUCTION ; CONFIRMATION ; CONSTRAINTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35619 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Natl Council Air & Stream Improvement Inc NCASI, 1258 Windemere Ave, Naperville, IL 60540 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Loehle, Craig. The epistemological status of general circulation models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:1719-1731. |
APA | Loehle, Craig.(2018).The epistemological status of general circulation models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,1719-1731. |
MLA | Loehle, Craig."The epistemological status of general circulation models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):1719-1731. |
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