Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3290-5 |
Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier | |
Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Ben P. | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Despite recent improvements in ENSO simulations, ENSO predictions ultimately remain limited by error growth and model inadequacies. Determining the accompanying dynamical processes that drive the growth of certain types of errors may help the community better recognize which error sources provide an intrinsic limit to predictability. This study applies a dynamical analysis to previously developed CCSM4 error ensemble experiments that have been used to model noise-driven error growth. Analysis reveals that ENSO-independent error growth is instigated via a coupled instability mechanism. Daily error fields indicate that persistent stochastic zonal wind stress perturbations near the equatorial dateline activate the coupled instability, first driving local SST and anomalous zonal current changes that then induce upwelling anomalies and a clear thermocline response. In particular, March presents a window of opportunity for stochastic to impose a lasting influence on the evolution of eastern Pacific SST through December, suggesting that stochastic is an important contributor to the spring predictability barrier. Stochastic winds occurring in other months only temporarily affect eastern Pacific SST for 2-3 months. Comparison of a control simulation with an ENSO cycle and the ENSO-independent error ensemble experiments reveals that once the instability is initiated, the subsequent error growth is modulated via an ENSO-like mechanism, namely the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, unlike ENSO events that exhibit growth through the fall, the growth of ENSO-independent SST errors terminates once the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback weakens in fall. Results imply that the heat content supplied by the subsurface precursor preceding the onset of an ENSO event is paramount to maintaining the growth of the instability (or event) through fall. |
英文关键词 | ENSO Forecast errors Error dynamics Spring predictability barrier ENSO predictability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402122200011 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN MODEL ; ZONAL ADVECTIVE FEEDBACKS ; NINO SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SINGULAR VECTOR ANALYSIS ; TROPICAL PACIFIC SST ; WESTERLY WIND EVENTS ; EL-NINO ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; OPTIMAL-GROWTH |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35551 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Larson, Sarah M.,Kirtman, Ben P.. Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48(11). |
APA | Larson, Sarah M.,&Kirtman, Ben P..(2017).Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48(11). |
MLA | Larson, Sarah M.,et al."Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48.11(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论