Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4164-9 |
Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent | |
Kang, Suchul1; Im, Eun-Soon2; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:747-764 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Singapore; Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460619200043 |
WOS关键词 | DIURNAL CYCLE ; SOUTHEAST-ASIA ; TROPICAL CIRCULATION ; MONSOON RAINFALL ; WINTER RAINFALL ; EL-NINO ; PRECIPITATION ; MALAYSIA ; PARAMETERIZATION ; TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35273 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ctr Environm Sensing & Modeling CENSAM, Singapore MIT Alliance Res & Technol SMART, Singapore, Singapore; 2.Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Div Environm & Sustainabil, Kowloon, Acad Bldg 3594,Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 3.MIT, Ralph M Parsons Lab, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kang, Suchul,Im, Eun-Soon,Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.. Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:747-764. |
APA | Kang, Suchul,Im, Eun-Soon,&Eltahir, Elfatih A. B..(2019).Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,747-764. |
MLA | Kang, Suchul,et al."Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):747-764. |
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