Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4109-3 |
On the seasonal prediction of the western United States El Nino precipitation pattern during the 2015/16 winter | |
Yang, Xiaosong1,2; Jia, Liwei3; Kapnick, Sarah B.1; Delworth, Thomas L.1,4; Vecchi, Gabriel A.4,5,6; Gudgel, Rich1; Underwood, Seth1; Zeng, Fanrong1 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:3765-3783 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A "typical" El Nino leads to wet (dry) wintertime anomalies over the southern (northern) half of the Western United States (WUS). However, during the strong El Nino of 2015/16, the WUS winter precipitation pattern was roughly opposite to this canonical (average of the record) anomaly pattern. To understand why this happened, and whether it was predictable, we use a suite of high-resolution seasonal prediction experiments with coupled climate models. We find that the unusual 2015/16 precipitation pattern was predictable at zero-lead time horizon when the ocean/atmosphere/land components were initialized with observations. However, when the ocean alone is initialized the coupled model fails to predict the 2015/16 pattern, although ocean initial conditions alone can reproduce the observed WUS precipitation during the 1997/98 strong El Nino. Further observational analysis shows that the amplitudes of the El Nino induced tropical circulation anomalies during 2015/16 were weakened by about 50% relative to those of 1997/98. This was caused by relative cold (warm) anomalies in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific suppressing (enhancing) deep convection anomalies in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific during 2015/16. The reduced El Nino teleconnection led to a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet over the southeast North Pacific and southern WUS, resulting in the unusual 2015/16 winter precipitation pattern over the WUS. This study highlights the importance of initial conditions not only in the ocean, but in the land and atmosphere as well, for predicting the unusual El Nino teleconnection and its influence on the winter WUS precipitation anomalies during 2015/16. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447366100034 |
WOS关键词 | COUPLED CLIMATE MODELS ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; LAND-SURFACE ; INITIALIZATION ; PERFORMANCE ; ATMOSPHERE ; REGIMES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35239 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, 201 Forrestal Rd, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 2.Univ Corp Atmospheric Res, Cooperat Programs Adv Earth Syst Sci, Boulder, CO 80305 USA; 3.NOAA, Innovim LLC, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD USA; 4.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 5.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 6.Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Xiaosong,Jia, Liwei,Kapnick, Sarah B.,et al. On the seasonal prediction of the western United States El Nino precipitation pattern during the 2015/16 winter[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3765-3783. |
APA | Yang, Xiaosong.,Jia, Liwei.,Kapnick, Sarah B..,Delworth, Thomas L..,Vecchi, Gabriel A..,...&Zeng, Fanrong.(2018).On the seasonal prediction of the western United States El Nino precipitation pattern during the 2015/16 winter.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3765-3783. |
MLA | Yang, Xiaosong,et al."On the seasonal prediction of the western United States El Nino precipitation pattern during the 2015/16 winter".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3765-3783. |
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