Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
Coal in 2022: South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership | |
Jesse Burton | |
2022-01-13 | |
出版年 | 2022 |
国家 | 欧洲 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
英文摘要 | Data trends: 🟠 COP26 Progress: 🟢 2022 Momentum: 🟢 2021 witnessed a series of diplomatic moments when political leaders discussed coal exit for the first time. The G7 and G20 both agreed to end international coal finance. COP26 saw a last-minute global agreement to phase down coal. These discussions at the highest level were typically focused on what governments were going to STOP doing. But COP26 also hosted an unprecedented announcement from Leaders of what they are going to START doing in order to accelerate the transition from coal to clean energy. Presidents Biden, Macron and von der Leyen joined Prime Minister Johnson and Chancellor Merkel to launch a political declaration with South Africa titled the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). President Ramaphosa was unable to travel to Glasgow, so sent a video message instead. Extensive work over the past year(s) by local think tanks and electricity company Eskom have been joined by unprecedented levels of inter- and intra-governmental coordination. The result is a ground-breaking model for just transition designed and led by the national government and supported by donors. An analysis in Foreign Policy proclaimed that “South Africa’s Coal Deal Is a New Model for Climate Progress. The agreement is the most impressive thing to come out of the COP26 climate summit”. A pioneering financial commitment to support South Africa’s energy transitionSouth Africa has the most coal-intensive economy of the G20, depending on coal for 87% of its electricity. In Eskom it has a debt- and crisis-ridden utility struggling with rapidly evolving power sector economics. The country has enormous socio-economic development challenges and mass unemployment. Recognising this context, the JETP was launched as an initial $8.5bn to support South Africa through just transition interventions, power sector decarbonisation, and economic diversification into future energy sectors, including electric vehicles and green hydrogen. 2021 has seen interest in climate change grow in South Africa, with political commitments to climate action and just transition at the highest levels of government. A Presidential Climate Commission was formed and the NDC updated, including absolute emissions reductions over the next decade and a 1.5oC aligned lower-range goal for 2030. Achieving this will mean accelerating the implementation of the official power plan (IRP) in the short term and doubling the planned rollout of renewable energy by 2030. Meanwhile, Eskom is struggling to keep the lights on and finance grid expansion amid widespread concerns about the impacts of coal plant and mine closures. Macroeconomic fragility makes it essential to build a new low-carbon development pathway: the JCPT is not simply a coal closure deal. Opportunities and risks – the devil is in the detailJETP represents an unprecedented opportunity to align country development objectives with international climate finance donor support, and as such is ground-breaking. Opportunities include:
Several significant challenges must be overcome to succeed:Scale $8.5bn is a significant sum, but the need for mitigation, adaptation and just transition is far greater. Estimates include $30bn for Eskom, $60bn for power sector investment by 2030, plus support for Just Transition, industrial policy interventions, Small, Medium and Micro Enterprise development, and more. Delivery of new and additional finance Developed countries have historically failed to deliver on their climate finance promises and responsibilities, with much of it disbursed as loans rather than the necessary grants. Donors are now on the hook to deliver $8.5bn, which should be new and additional. Terms The quality of finance flows is as important as the scale. Much of the $8.5bn will need to be as a grant or concessional finance, with publicly available terms. Additional debt for an already debt-laden utility would hinder rather than help the transition. Just Transition finance must plug holes for innovative or new sectors that existing financial instruments don’t service. Technical assistance is essential but is insufficient alone.
The way forwardsJETP partner countries have promised to use the next twelve months to progress the details of the deal. A successful partnership is contingent on delivery of the money, but progress must be made by South Africa in three urgent areas:
The JETP offers a potentially transformational model for just transition in middle-income countries: Indonesia and India are watching JETP closely. Success could provide the foundations for similar approaches, but failure would send the opposite message. Insufficient donor support, transparency and coordination would leave climate action facing a huge political risk from communities and organised labour being left behind. Progress in South Africa could unlock a just coal-to-clean transition model for the world. All partners in the JETP are now under pressure to get it right. |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | E3G |
文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/344931 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jesse Burton. Coal in 2022: South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership,2022. |
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