Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
Combining information from decadal predictions and climate projections to phase in climate variability | |
admin | |
2022-01-26 | |
发布年 | 2022 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 欧洲 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
正文(英文) |
For a user interested in the likely climate over a specific geographical region, the plethora of climate data from these different sources of future model simulations can be confusing. The different data sets may not agree on the outcome and there is some ambiguity as to which data to use if there is overlapping availability. Within WP5, we have thus been studying how information from decadal predictions and climate projections can be combined such that the advantages of each can be gathered without losing valuable information. One area of research explored the feasibility of constraining the variability of ensembles of future climate projections using the latest decadal predictions. We were able to demonstrate that, in the case of predicting temperatures over the North Atlantic, the forecasts’ quality improved due to these constraints even after the 10 years for which decadal predictions were available (see here for more). Another novel constraining method developed within WP5 takes into account global patterns of climate variability. It was shown that this approach was able to improve climate projections of the following 20 years. In addition to constraining methodologies, work is also ongoing to explore the strengths, limitations and practicalities of seamlessly merging initialised predictions and non-initialised projections. |
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来源平台 | European Climate Prediction system |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/344890 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. Combining information from decadal predictions and climate projections to phase in climate variability. 2022. |
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