Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021GL096236 |
Potential seasonal predictability of the risk of local rainfall extremes estimated using high-resolution large ensemble simulations | |
Y. Imada; H. Kawase | |
2021-11-29 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
![]() |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Significant progress has been made in seasonal climate predictions based on general circulation models (GCMs). However, seasonal prediction of local heavy rain remains challenging due to limited resolution. A small signal-to-noise ratio also prevents meaningful predictions. In this study, 100-member large-ensemble sets of GCM simulations and high-resolution downscaled products with a regional climate model were used to identify the unknown source of seasonal predictability for the risk of local heavy rainfall around Japan and Taiwan. The detected predictable signals depended on the location and the season. Highly predictable signals were found for events caused by typhoons and the stationary front. Further analyses of the large-scale backgrounds simulated by the parent-GCM revealed that each source of predictability comes from various flavors of El Niño/Southern Oscillation and anomalies in the Indian Ocean. The approach of this study potentially provides an opportunity to identify unknown predictable regional signals all over the world. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/343108 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Y. Imada,H. Kawase. Potential seasonal predictability of the risk of local rainfall extremes estimated using high-resolution large ensemble simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Y. Imada,&H. Kawase.(2021).Potential seasonal predictability of the risk of local rainfall extremes estimated using high-resolution large ensemble simulations.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Y. Imada,et al."Potential seasonal predictability of the risk of local rainfall extremes estimated using high-resolution large ensemble simulations".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
查看访问统计 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Y. Imada]的文章 |
[H. Kawase]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Y. Imada]的文章 |
[H. Kawase]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Y. Imada]的文章 |
[H. Kawase]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论