Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa64e6 |
Temperature suitability for malaria climbing the Ethiopian Highlands | |
Lyon, Bradfield1; Dinku, Tufa2; Raman, Anita2,3; Thomson, Madeleine C.2 | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | While the effect of climate change on the prevalence of malaria in the highlands of Eastern Africa has been the topic of protracted debate, temperature is widely accepted as a fundamentally important environmental factor constraining its transmission. Air temperatures below approximately 18 degrees C and 15 degrees C, respectively, prohibit the development of the Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax parasites responsible for the majority of malaria cases in Ethiopia. Low temperatures also impede the development rates of the Anopheles mosquito vectors. While locations of sufficiently high elevation have temperatures below these transmission thresholds, a fundamental question is how such temperature 'threshold elevations' are changing with time. A lack of high quality, high spatial resolution climate data has previously prohibited a rigorous investigation. Using a newly developed national temperature dataset for Ethiopia that combines numerous in-situ surface observations with downscaled reanalysis data, we here identify statistically significant increases in elevation for both the 18 degrees C and 15 degrees C thresholds in highland areas between 1981-2014. Substantial interannual and spatial variations in threshold elevations are identified, the former associated with the El Nino Southern-Oscillation and the latter with the complex climate of the region. The estimated population in locations with an upward trend in the 15 degrees C threshold elevation is approximately 6.5 million people (2.2 million for 18 degrees C). While not a direct prediction of the additional population made vulnerable to malaria through a shift to higher temperature, our results underscore a newly acquired ability to investigate climate variability and trends at fine spatial scales across Ethiopia, including changes in a fundamental constraint on malaria transmission in the Ethiopian Highlands. |
英文关键词 | temperature trends East Africa malaria |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000403667800002 |
WOS关键词 | EAST-AFRICAN HIGHLANDS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; LAND-USE ; TRANSMISSION ; RESURGENCE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34258 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Maine, 210 Sawyer Hall, Orono, ME 04469 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 3.United Nations Climate Change Support Team, 405 East 42nd St, New York, NY 10017 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lyon, Bradfield,Dinku, Tufa,Raman, Anita,et al. Temperature suitability for malaria climbing the Ethiopian Highlands[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(6). |
APA | Lyon, Bradfield,Dinku, Tufa,Raman, Anita,&Thomson, Madeleine C..(2017).Temperature suitability for malaria climbing the Ethiopian Highlands.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(6). |
MLA | Lyon, Bradfield,et al."Temperature suitability for malaria climbing the Ethiopian Highlands".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.6(2017). |
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