Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/fee.2357 |
Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends | |
Chris M Jones; Shannon Jones; Anna Petrasova; Vaclav Petras; Devon Gaydos; Megan M Skrip; Yu Takeuchi; Kevin Bigsby; Ross K Meentemeyer | |
2021-06-03 | |
发表期刊 | Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Ecological forecasting has vast potential to support environmental decision making with repeated, testable predictions across management-relevant timescales and locations. Yet resource managers rarely use co-designed forecasting systems or embed them in decision making. Although prediction of planned management outcomes is particularly important for biological invasions to optimize when and where resources should be allocated, spatial–temporal models of spread typically have not been openly shared, iteratively updated, or interactive to facilitate exploration of management actions. We describe a species-agnostic, open-source framework – called the Pest or Pathogen Spread (PoPS) Forecasting Platform – for co-designing near-term iterative forecasts of biological invasions. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate that iterative calibration yields higher forecast skill than using only the earliest-available data to predict future spread. The PoPS framework is a primary example of an ecological forecasting system that has been both scientifically improved and optimized for real-world decision making through sustained participation and use by management stakeholders. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/337635 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chris M Jones,Shannon Jones,Anna Petrasova,et al. Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends[J]. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,2021. |
APA | Chris M Jones.,Shannon Jones.,Anna Petrasova.,Vaclav Petras.,Devon Gaydos.,...&Ross K Meentemeyer.(2021).Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends.Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. |
MLA | Chris M Jones,et al."Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends".Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (2021). |
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