Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2103294118 |
Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability | |
Maximilian Kotz; Leonie Wenz; Anders Levermann | |
2021-08-10 | |
发表期刊 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Science |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Changes in mean climatic conditions will affect natural and societal systems profoundly under continued anthropogenic global warming. Changes in the high-frequency variability of temperature exert additional pressures, yet the effect of greenhouse forcing thereon has not been fully assessed or identified in observational data. Here, we show that the intramonthly variability of daily surface temperature changes with distinct global patterns as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. In both reanalyses of historical observations and state-of-the-art projections, variability increases at low to mid latitudes and decreases at northern mid to high latitudes with enhanced greenhouse forcing. These latitudinally polarized daily variability changes are identified from internal climate variability using a recently developed signal-to-noise-maximizing pattern-filtering technique. Analysis of a multimodel ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 shows that these changes are attributable to enhanced greenhouse forcing. By the end of the century under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, daily temperature variability would continue to increase by up to a further 100% at low latitudes and decrease by 40% at northern high latitudes. Alternative scenarios demonstrate that these changes would be limited by mitigation of greenhouse gases. Moreover, global changes in daily variability exhibit strong covariation with warming across climate models, suggesting that the equilibrium climate sensitivity will also play a role in determining the extent of future variability changes. This global response of the high-frequency climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing is likely to have strong and unequal effects on societies, economies, and ecosystems if mitigation and protection measures are not taken. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/335471 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Maximilian Kotz,Leonie Wenz,Anders Levermann. Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science,2021. |
APA | Maximilian Kotz,Leonie Wenz,&Anders Levermann.(2021).Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability.Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. |
MLA | Maximilian Kotz,et al."Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability".Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (2021). |
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