Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1 |
Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets | |
Mercure, J. -F.1,2,3; Pollitt, H.2,3; Vinuales, J. E.2; Edwards, N. R.2,4; Holden, P. B.4; Chewpreecha, U.3; Salas, P.2; Sognnaes, I.2; Lam, A.2,5; Knobloch, F.1,2 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:7页码:588-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; England; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Several major economies rely heavily on fossil fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels1-4. This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil fuel ventures(1,2), which could become stranded as a result. Here, we use an integrated global economy-environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether or not new climate policies are adopted; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2 degrees C target of the Paris Agreement are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production ('sell out') despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of US$1-4 trillion; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (for example, net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (for example, Russia, the United States or Canada, which could see their fossil fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440200100017 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE POLICY ; MODEL ; TRANSITIONS ; CO2 ; PERSPECTIVE ; TECHNOLOGY ; MITIGATION ; DIFFUSION ; EMISSIONS ; FRAMEWORK |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33504 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Dept Environm Sci, Nijmegen, Netherlands; 2.Univ Cambridge, Cambridge Ctr Environm Energy & Nat Resource Gove, Cambridge, England; 3.Cambridge Econometr Ltd, Covent Garden, Cambridge, England; 4.Open Univ, Environm Earth & Ecosyst, Milton Keynes, Bucks, England; 5.Univ Macao, Dept Econ, Fac Social Sci, Taipa, Macao, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mercure, J. -F.,Pollitt, H.,Vinuales, J. E.,et al. Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(7):588-+. |
APA | Mercure, J. -F..,Pollitt, H..,Vinuales, J. E..,Edwards, N. R..,Holden, P. B..,...&Knobloch, F..(2018).Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(7),588-+. |
MLA | Mercure, J. -F.,et al."Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.7(2018):588-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论