Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021GL093258 |
Sources of uncertainty in multi-model large ensemble projections of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation | |
C. M. McKenna; A. C. Maycock | |
2021-07-15 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Projections of the winter North Atlantic circulation exhibit large spread. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives typically provide only a few ensemble members per model, rendering it difficult to quantify reducible model structural uncertainty and irreducible internal variability (IV) in projections. We estimate using the Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive that model structural differences explain two-thirds of the spread in late 21st century (2080-2099) projections of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This estimate is biased by systematic model errors in the forced NAO response and IV. Across the North Atlantic, the NAO explains a substantial fraction of the spread in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) projections due to IV, except in the central North Atlantic. Conversely, the spread in North Atlantic MSLP projections associated with model differences is largely unexplained by the NAO. Therefore, improving understanding of the NAO alone may not constrain the reducible uncertainty in North Atlantic MSLP projections. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/334061 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | C. M. McKenna,A. C. Maycock. Sources of uncertainty in multi-model large ensemble projections of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | C. M. McKenna,&A. C. Maycock.(2021).Sources of uncertainty in multi-model large ensemble projections of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | C. M. McKenna,et al."Sources of uncertainty in multi-model large ensemble projections of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
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