Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021GL092773 |
Statistical uncertainty in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions | |
H. L. O. McClelland; I. Halevy; D. A. Wolf-Gladrow; D. Evans; A. S. Bradley | |
2021-07-15 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using OLS linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, non-parametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research towards explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a ‘data-forward’ approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/334057 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | H. L. O. McClelland,I. Halevy,D. A. Wolf-Gladrow,et al. Statistical uncertainty in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | H. L. O. McClelland,I. Halevy,D. A. Wolf-Gladrow,D. Evans,&A. S. Bradley.(2021).Statistical uncertainty in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | H. L. O. McClelland,et al."Statistical uncertainty in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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