Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2100201118 |
Quantifying COVID-19 importation risk in a dynamic network of domestic cities and international countries | |
Xiaoyi Han; Yilan Xu; Linlin Fan; Yi Huang; Minhong Xu; Song Gao | |
2021-08-03 | |
发表期刊 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Since its outbreak in December 2019, the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to 191 countries and caused millions of deaths. Many countries have experienced multiple epidemic waves and faced containment pressures from both domestic and international transmission. In this study, we conduct a multiscale geographic analysis of the spread of COVID-19 in a policy-influenced dynamic network to quantify COVID-19 importation risk under different policy scenarios using evidence from China. Our spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) model explicitly distinguishes the effects of travel flows from the effects of transmissibility within cities, across cities, and across national borders. We find that within-city transmission was the dominant transmission mechanism in China at the beginning of the outbreak and that all domestic transmission mechanisms were muted or significantly weakened before importation posed a threat. We identify effective containment policies by matching the change points of domestic and importation transmissibility parameters to the timing of various interventions. Our simulations suggest that importation risk is limited when domestic transmission is under control, but that cumulative cases would have been almost 13 times higher if domestic transmissibility had resurged to its precontainment level after importation and 32 times higher if domestic transmissibility had remained at its precontainment level since the outbreak. Our findings provide practical insights into infectious disease containment and call for collaborative and coordinated global suppression efforts. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/333986 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xiaoyi Han,Yilan Xu,Linlin Fan,et al. Quantifying COVID-19 importation risk in a dynamic network of domestic cities and international countries[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2021. |
APA | Xiaoyi Han,Yilan Xu,Linlin Fan,Yi Huang,Minhong Xu,&Song Gao.(2021).Quantifying COVID-19 importation risk in a dynamic network of domestic cities and international countries.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. |
MLA | Xiaoyi Han,et al."Quantifying COVID-19 importation risk in a dynamic network of domestic cities and international countries".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021). |
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