Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f8 |
Temperature and precipitation extremes under current, 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above pre-industrial levels over Botswana, and implications for climate change vulnerability | |
Nkemelang, Tiro1,2; New, Mark2,3,4; Zaroug, Modathir2,5,6 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Botswana; South Africa; England; Uganda |
英文摘要 | Climate extremes are widely projected to become more severe as the global climate continues to warm due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These extremes often cause the most severe impacts on society. Therefore, the extent to which the extremes might change at regional level as the global climate warms from current levels to proposed policy targets of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above preindustrial levels need to be understood to allow for better preparedness and informed policy formulation. This paper analysed projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes at 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming over Botswana, a country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Projected changes in temperature extremes are significantly different from each other at the three levels of global warming, across three main climatic zones in the country. Specifically, at 2.0 degrees C global warming relative to preindustrial, for the ensemble median: (a) country average warm spell duration index increases by 80, 65, 62 days per year across different climatic zones, approximately three (and two) times the change at 1.0 (1.5) degrees C; (b) cold night (TN10P) and cold day (TX10P) frequencies decrease by 12 and 9 days per year across all regions, respectively, while hot nights (TN90P) and hot days (TX90P) both increase by 8-9 days across all regions. Projected changes in drought-related indices are also distinct at different warming levels. Specifically: (a) projected mean annual precipitation decreases across the country by 5%-12% at 2 degrees C, 3%-8% at 1.5 degrees C and 2%-7% at 1.0 degrees C; (b) dry spell length (ALTCDD) increases by 15-19 days across the three climatic zones at 2.0 degrees C, about three (and two) times as much as the increase at 1.0 (1.5) degrees C. Ensemble mean projections indicate increases in heavy rainfall indices, but the inter-model spread is large, with no consistent direction of change, and so changes are not statistically significant. The implications of these changes in extreme temperature and precipitation for key socio-economic sectors are explored, and reveal progressively severe impacts, and consequent adaptation challenges for Botswana as the global climate warms from its present temperature of 1.0 degrees C above preindustrial levels to 1.5 degrees C, and then 2.0 degrees C. |
英文关键词 | climate extremes Botswana 1.5 degrees climate change Africa climate impacts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435364700001 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN AFRICA ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; FUTURE CHANGES ; EL-NINO ; PROJECTIONS ; INDEXES ; CMIP5 ; INTENSITY ; DROUGHT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33207 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Botswana Inst Technol Res & Innovat, Gaborone, Botswana; 2.Univ Cape Town, African Climate & Dev Initiat, Cape Town, South Africa; 3.Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, Cape Town, South Africa; 4.Univ East Anglia, Sch Int Dev, Norwich, Norfolk, England; 5.Nile Basin Initiat, Kampala, Uganda; 6.Univ Cape Town, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Cape Town, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nkemelang, Tiro,New, Mark,Zaroug, Modathir. Temperature and precipitation extremes under current, 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above pre-industrial levels over Botswana, and implications for climate change vulnerability[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6). |
APA | Nkemelang, Tiro,New, Mark,&Zaroug, Modathir.(2018).Temperature and precipitation extremes under current, 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above pre-industrial levels over Botswana, and implications for climate change vulnerability.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6). |
MLA | Nkemelang, Tiro,et al."Temperature and precipitation extremes under current, 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above pre-industrial levels over Botswana, and implications for climate change vulnerability".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018). |
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