Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0c |
Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France | |
Gammans, Matthew1; Merel, Pierre1,2; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel3 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change. |
英文关键词 | climate change impacts cereal yields nonlinear temperature effects Europe wheat barley Supplementary material for this article is available online |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400970600001 |
WOS关键词 | HIGH-TEMPERATURE ; WHEAT YIELDS ; CROP YIELDS ; AGRICULTURE ; ADAPTATION ; WEATHER ; GROWTH ; EUROPE ; OUTPUT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33159 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Davis, CA 95616 USA; 2.Giannini Fdn Agr Econ, Berkeley, CA USA; 3.Cornell Univ, Charles H Dyson Sch Appl Econ & Management, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gammans, Matthew,Merel, Pierre,Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel. Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(5). |
APA | Gammans, Matthew,Merel, Pierre,&Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel.(2017).Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(5). |
MLA | Gammans, Matthew,et al."Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.5(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论