The growing challenge of vegetation change

doi:10.1126/science.abi9902

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abi9902
	The growing challenge of vegetation change
	Jonathan T. Overpeck; David D. Breshears
	2021-05-21
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2021
英文摘要	A substantial portion of the planet has been on fire. Climate change has been implicated in sweeping wildfires in the western United States, Australia, the boreal forest stretching around the globe, Amazonia, and elsewhere ([ 1 ][1]). Other forests have experienced extensive tree loss, again largely because of hotter and drier climate extremes ([ 2 ][2], [ 3 ][3]). Forest disturbance driven by aridity, heat, fire, disease, pests, and wind creates opportunity for vegetation change. At the same time, climate change shifts conditions to favor different plant species across the landscape. The risk of future vegetation and ecosystem change will continue to grow unless climate change is strongly slowed ([ 4 ][4]). On page 860 of this issue, Mottl et al. ([ 5 ][5]) reveal that the drivers of global vegetation change are more substantial than thought, as are the implications for managing carbon with plants. Many aspects of responding to climate change assessments have become more challenging because observations have shown worse than expected change, and also because our scientific understanding has revealed the fuller complexity of the dynamics behind Earth system change. The Arctic is warming and melting faster than expected, and the rate of global coral death has also exceeded expectations. Sea-level rise forecasts have become worse, while a growing appreciation for the role of increasing temperature in hydroclimatic change means that the implications of aridification and drought are becoming more dire in many parts of the world ([ 6 ][6], [ 7 ][7]). Paleoclimatologists have long known that the largest amount of global climate change since the last Ice Age was concentrated in the period of deglaciation between 16,000 and 10,000 years ago ([ 4 ][4]), and have assumed with good reason that this global climate change drove the largest vegetation change of the post Ice Age period. Mottl et al. combined new statistical methods and an impressively large global fossil pollen compilation to show that this assertion is not entirely correct. Instead, it appears that vegetation change across the planet began to accelerate markedly within the last several thousand years as agriculture intensified, and may have exceeded rates observed during the deglaciation. It is known with confidence, however, that the rates of climate change during this more recent period were substantially lower than over the deglacial period. Thus, the new findings point to humans as a potent force, even in preindustrial times, capable of driving large vegetation change at the scale of the planet. ![Figure][8] Rapid tree loss around the world Global tree decline is attributed to commodity-driven deforestation ([ 9 ][9]), loss by wildfire ([ 1 ][1]), and drought- and heat-related mortality (often associated with pests and pathogens). The latter two are affected by increasing atmospheric moisture demand that drives forest stress. Forested areas are shown with tree heights ranging from 5 m (lightest green) to greater than 60 m (darkest green). GRAPHIC: K. FRANKLIN/ SCIENCE The findings of Mottl et al. confirm that the Anthropocene began prior to the Industrial Revolution as humans began to exert a large impact on vegetation, terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycles around the globe ([ 8 ][10]). In particular, the study suggests that managing future vegetation change and associated terrestrial ecosystem services could be more difficult than thought. Clear signs of this challenge are evident (see the figure). In addition to expanding wildfires and tree loss (due to drought, heat, and associated pests and pathogens), human-driven deforestation continues to expand globally ([ 9 ][9]). Especially troubling is the ongoing human assault on tropical forests, which hold vast amounts of biodiversity and sequestered carbon and also are critical to atmospheric water recycling at low latitudes ([ 10 ][11]). Humans continue the inexorable pace of deforestation to grow more crops and animals for food, fiber, and energy. Additional climate-driven change is also a sure bet. Even in a world where climate change is soon halted, global temperature rise will likely reach between 1.5° and 2°C above preindustrial levels. This means that global vegetation will likely face climate change effects that are substantially worse than already experienced. Two categories of partial solution exist. One strategy is to stop emissions of greenhouse gases as much, and as fast, as possible. If this is accomplished, climate-driven vegetation change will be more limited, but still a greater challenge to manage than it is today. Another partial solution is to rethink how we manage vegetation, and to manage proactively for the changes that we can anticipate. Given that plant species respond individually to climate change, and that many climatic conditions of the future may be new ([ 11 ][12]), it will likely prove more effective to manage vegetation, particularly forests, for the ecosystem services they provide, rather than attempt to maintain them as they were in the 20th century ([ 12 ][13]). Although complete success is impossible, an important goal must be to reduce the risk of severe wildfires that are destroying lives and communities, injecting increasing amounts of toxic smoke to the air, and releasing growing amounts of carbon and soot to the atmosphere, further accelerating climate change ([ 1 ][1], [ 13 ][14]). Managing vegetation for anticipated change will cost more money, but where needed, funding can be generated by the ecosystem services that management protects ([ 12 ][13], [ 14 ][15]). For example, money is already spent to reduce wildfire risk, fight wildfires, and preserve functioning ecosystems for water supply, biodiversity, hunting, fishing, and other forms of recreation. Money is also spent to conserve biodiversity, “wildness,” and cultural values. However, adding the management of vegetation for carbon sequestration will require more resources to support those who do the management—most likely those who live in rural and Indigenous communities who need the ecosystem services the most. Nonetheless, this management enterprise could bring about a stronger economy by paying more directly for those desired ecosystem services. Decision-makers need to enable new science, policy, and finance mechanisms that are optimized for handling the ecosystem disturbance and vegetation change that are unstoppable, and also to ensure that the trees and forests that are planted or preserved for the carbon they sequester survive in the face of climate change and other human threats. Failure to meet this challenge will mean that large terrestrial stores of carbon will be lost to the atmosphere, accelerating climate change and the impacts on vegetation that threaten many more of the ecosystem services on which humans depend. It also means that the dream of large-scale tree-planting as a substitute for direct reductions of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions may be seriously compromised. The upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference ([ 15 ][16]) will need to face this challenge head on. 1. [↵][17]1. A. Duane, 2. M. Castellnou, 3. L. Brotons , Clim. Change 165, 43 (2021). [OpenUrl][18] 2. [↵][19]1. H. Hartmann et al ., New Phytol. 218, 15 (2018). [OpenUrl][20][PubMed][21] 3. [↵][22]1. K. X. Ruthrof et al ., Sci. Rep. 8, 13094 (2018). [OpenUrl][23][CrossRef][24] 4. [↵][25]1. C. Nolan et al ., Science 361, 920 (2018). [OpenUrl][26][Abstract/FREE Full Text][27] 5. [↵][28]1. O. Mottl et al ., Science 372, 860 (2021). [OpenUrl][29][Abstract/FREE Full Text][30] 6. [↵][31]1. J. Garner et al ., Earths Futur. 6, 1603 (2018). [OpenUrl][32] 7. [↵][33]1. A. Park Williams et al ., Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 292 (2013). [OpenUrl][34] 8. [↵][35]1. W. F. Ruddiman , Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 41, 45 (2013). [OpenUrl][36][CrossRef][37][Web of Science][38] 9. [↵][39]1. P. G. Curtis, 2. C. M. Slay, 3. N. L. Harris, 4. A. Tyukavina, 5. M. C. Hansen , Science 361, 1108 (2018). [OpenUrl][40][Abstract/FREE Full Text][41] 10. [↵][42]1. Y. Malhi et al ., Science 319, 169 (2008). [OpenUrl][43][Abstract/FREE Full Text][44] 11. [↵][45]1. J. W. Williams, 2. S. T. Jackson, 3. J. E. Kutzbach , Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 104, 5738 (2007). [OpenUrl][46][Abstract/FREE Full Text][47] 12. [↵][48]1. W. R. L. Anderegg et al ., Science 368, eaaz7005 (2020). [OpenUrl][49][Abstract/FREE Full Text][50] 13. [↵][51]1. S. L. Stephens et al ., Bioscience 68, 77 (2018). [OpenUrl][52] 14. [↵][53]1. W. R. Turner et al ., Bioscience 57, 868 (2007). [OpenUrl][54][CrossRef][55][Web of Science][56] 15. [↵][57]United Nations Climate Change Conference, Conference of Parties (COP) 26, 1 to 12 November 2021, Glasgow, UK. [1]: #ref-1 [2]: #ref-2 [3]: #ref-3 [4]: #ref-4 [5]: #ref-5 [6]: #ref-6 [7]: #ref-7 [8]: pending:yes [9]: #ref-9 [10]: #ref-8 [11]: #ref-10 [12]: #ref-11 [13]: #ref-12 [14]: #ref-13 [15]: #ref-14 [16]: #ref-15 [17]: #xref-ref-1-1 "View reference 1 in text" [18]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DClim.%2BChange%26rft.volume%253D165%26rft.spage%253D43%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [19]: #xref-ref-2-1 "View reference 2 in text" [20]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DNew%2BPhytol.%26rft.volume%253D218%26rft.spage%253D15%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Apmid%252F29488280%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [21]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=29488280&link_type=MED&atom=%2Fsci%2F372%2F6544%2F786.atom [22]: #xref-ref-3-1 "View reference 3 in text" [23]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DSci.%2BRep.%26rft.volume%253D8%26rft.spage%253D13094%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1038%252Fs41598-018-31236-5%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [24]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.1038/s41598-018-31236-5&link_type=DOI [25]: #xref-ref-4-1 "View reference 4 in text" [26]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DScience%26rft.stitle%253DScience%26rft.aulast%253DNolan%26rft.auinit1%253DC.%26rft.volume%253D361%26rft.issue%253D6405%26rft.spage%253D920%26rft.epage%253D923%26rft.atitle%253DPast%2Band%2Bfuture%2Bglobal%2Btransformation%2Bof%2Bterrestrial%2Becosystems%2Bunder%2Bclimate%2Bchange%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1126%252Fscience.aan5360%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Apmid%252F30166491%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [27]: /lookup/ijlink/YTozOntzOjQ6InBhdGgiO3M6MTQ6Ii9sb29rdXAvaWpsaW5rIjtzOjU6InF1ZXJ5IjthOjQ6e3M6ODoibGlua1R5cGUiO3M6NDoiQUJTVCI7czoxMToiam91cm5hbENvZGUiO3M6Mzoic2NpIjtzOjU6InJlc2lkIjtzOjEyOiIzNjEvNjQwNS85MjAiO3M6NDoiYXRvbSI7czoyMjoiL3NjaS8zNzIvNjU0NC83ODYuYXRvbSI7fXM6ODoiZnJhZ21lbnQiO3M6MDoiIjt9 [28]: #xref-ref-5-1 "View reference 5 in text" [29]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DScience%26rft.stitle%253DScience%26rft.aulast%253DMottl%26rft.auinit1%253DO.%26rft.volume%253D372%26rft.issue%253D6544%26rft.spage%253D860%26rft.epage%253D864%26rft.atitle%253DGlobal%2Bacceleration%2Bin%2Brates%2Bof%2Bvegetation%2Bchange%2Bover%2Bthe%2Bpast%2B18%252C000%2Byears%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1126%252Fscience.abg1685%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [30]: /lookup/ijlink/YTozOntzOjQ6InBhdGgiO3M6MTQ6Ii9sb29rdXAvaWpsaW5rIjtzOjU6InF1ZXJ5IjthOjQ6e3M6ODoibGlua1R5cGUiO3M6NDoiQUJTVCI7czoxMToiam91cm5hbENvZGUiO3M6Mzoic2NpIjtzOjU6InJlc2lkIjtzOjEyOiIzNzIvNjU0NC84NjAiO3M6NDoiYXRvbSI7czoyMjoiL3NjaS8zNzIvNjU0NC83ODYuYXRvbSI7fXM6ODoiZnJhZ21lbnQiO3M6MDoiIjt9 [31]: #xref-ref-6-1 "View reference 6 in text" [32]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DEarths%2BFutur.%26rft.volume%253D6%26rft.spage%253D1603%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [33]: #xref-ref-7-1 "View reference 7 in text" [34]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DNat.%2BClim.%2BChang.%26rft.volume%253D3%26rft.spage%253D292%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [35]: #xref-ref-8-1 "View reference 8 in text" [36]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DAnnu.%2BRev.%2BEarth%2BPlanet.%2BSci.%26rft.volume%253D41%26rft.spage%253D45%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1146%252Fannurev-earth-050212-123944%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [37]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.1146/annurev-earth-050212-123944&link_type=DOI [38]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=000321742600004&link_type=ISI [39]: #xref-ref-9-1 "View reference 9 in text" [40]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DScience%26rft.stitle%253DScience%26rft.aulast%253DCurtis%26rft.auinit1%253DP.%2BG.%26rft.volume%253D361%26rft.issue%253D6407%26rft.spage%253D1108%26rft.epage%253D1111%26rft.atitle%253DClassifying%2Bdrivers%2Bof%2Bglobal%2Bforest%2Bloss%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1126%252Fscience.aau3445%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Apmid%252F30213911%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [41]: /lookup/ijlink/YTozOntzOjQ6InBhdGgiO3M6MTQ6Ii9sb29rdXAvaWpsaW5rIjtzOjU6InF1ZXJ5IjthOjQ6e3M6ODoibGlua1R5cGUiO3M6NDoiQUJTVCI7czoxMToiam91cm5hbENvZGUiO3M6Mzoic2NpIjtzOjU6InJlc2lkIjtzOjEzOiIzNjEvNjQwNy8xMTA4IjtzOjQ6ImF0b20iO3M6MjI6Ii9zY2kvMzcyLzY1NDQvNzg2LmF0b20iO31zOjg6ImZyYWdtZW50IjtzOjA6IiI7fQ== [42]: #xref-ref-10-1 "View reference 10 in text" [43]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DScience%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1126%252Fscience.1146961%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Apmid%252F18048654%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [44]: /lookup/ijlink/YTozOntzOjQ6InBhdGgiO3M6MTQ6Ii9sb29rdXAvaWpsaW5rIjtzOjU6InF1ZXJ5IjthOjQ6e3M6ODoibGlua1R5cGUiO3M6NDoiQUJTVCI7czoxMToiam91cm5hbENvZGUiO3M6Mzoic2NpIjtzOjU6InJlc2lkIjtzOjEyOiIzMTkvNTg2MC8xNjkiO3M6NDoiYXRvbSI7czoyMjoiL3NjaS8zNzIvNjU0NC83ODYuYXRvbSI7fXM6ODoiZnJhZ21lbnQiO3M6MDoiIjt9 [45]: #xref-ref-11-1 "View reference 11 in text" [46]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DProc.%2BNatl.%2BAcad.%2BSci.%2BU.S.A.%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1073%252Fpnas.0606292104%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Apmid%252F17389402%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [47]: /lookup/ijlink/YTozOntzOjQ6InBhdGgiO3M6MTQ6Ii9sb29rdXAvaWpsaW5rIjtzOjU6InF1ZXJ5IjthOjQ6e3M6ODoibGlua1R5cGUiO3M6NDoiQUJTVCI7czoxMToiam91cm5hbENvZGUiO3M6NDoicG5hcyI7czo1OiJyZXNpZCI7czoxMToiMTA0LzE0LzU3MzgiO3M6NDoiYXRvbSI7czoyMjoiL3NjaS8zNzIvNjU0NC83ODYuYXRvbSI7fXM6ODoiZnJhZ21lbnQiO3M6MDoiIjt9 [48]: #xref-ref-12-1 "View reference 12 in text" [49]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DScience%26rft.stitle%253DScience%26rft.aulast%253DAnderegg%26rft.auinit1%253DW.%2BR.%2BL.%26rft.volume%253D368%26rft.issue%253D6497%26rft.spage%253Deaaz7005%26rft.epage%253Deaaz7005%26rft.atitle%253DClimate-driven%2Brisks%2Bto%2Bthe%2Bclimate%2Bmitigation%2Bpotential%2Bof%2Bforests%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1126%252Fscience.aaz7005%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Apmid%252F32554569%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [50]: /lookup/ijlink/YTozOntzOjQ6InBhdGgiO3M6MTQ6Ii9sb29rdXAvaWpsaW5rIjtzOjU6InF1ZXJ5IjthOjQ6e3M6ODoibGlua1R5cGUiO3M6NDoiQUJTVCI7czoxMToiam91cm5hbENvZGUiO3M6Mzoic2NpIjtzOjU6InJlc2lkIjtzOjE3OiIzNjgvNjQ5Ny9lYWF6NzAwNSI7czo0OiJhdG9tIjtzOjIyOiIvc2NpLzM3Mi82NTQ0Lzc4Ni5hdG9tIjt9czo4OiJmcmFnbWVudCI7czowOiIiO30= [51]: #xref-ref-13-1 "View reference 13 in text" [52]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DBioscience%26rft.volume%253D68%26rft.spage%253D77%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [53]: #xref-ref-14-1 "View reference 14 in text" [54]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DBioscience%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1641%252FB571009%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [55]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.1641/B571009&link_type=DOI [56]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=000250950500009&link_type=ISI [57]: #xref-ref-15-1 "View reference 15 in text"
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/328814
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jonathan T. Overpeck,David D. Breshears. The growing challenge of vegetation change[J]. Science,2021.
APA	Jonathan T. Overpeck,&David D. Breshears.(2021).The growing challenge of vegetation change.Science.
MLA	Jonathan T. Overpeck,et al."The growing challenge of vegetation change".Science (2021).