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DOI | 10.1002/2017JD028155 |
Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China | |
Zhang, Murong; Meng, Zhiyong | |
2018-04-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:7页码:3574-3593 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the stage-dependent rainfall forecast skills and the associated synoptic-scale features in a persistent heavy rainfall event in south China, Guangdong Province, during 29-31 March 2014, using operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This persistent rainfall was divided into two stages with a better precipitation forecast skill in Stage 2 (S2) than Stage 1 (S1) although S2 had a longer lead time. Using ensemble-based sensitivity analysis, key synoptic-scale factors that affected the rainfall were diagnosed by correlating the accumulated precipitation of each stage to atmospheric state variables in the middle of respective stage. The precipitation in both stages was found to be significantly correlated with midlevel trough, low-level vortex, and particularly the low-level jet on the southeast flank of the vortex and its associated moisture transport. The rainfall forecast skill was mainly determined by the forecast accuracy in the location of the low-level jet, which was possibly related to the different juxtapositions between the direction of the movement of the low-level vortex and the orientation of the low-level jet. The uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S1 was mainly from the location uncertainty of the low-level jet, while the uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S2 was mainly from the width uncertainty of the low-level jet with the relatively accurate location of the low-level jet. |
英文关键词 | persistent heavy rainfall south China stage-dependent rainfall forecast skills ensemble-based sensitivity analysis low-level jet |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430786500014 |
WOS关键词 | ENSEMBLE-BASED ANALYSIS ; OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ; SOWMEX/TIMREX IOP-8 ; CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ; PREDICTABILITY ; SEASON ; PRECIPITATION ; PERTURBATION ; SENSITIVITY ; EPISODES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32596 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Lab Climate & Ocean Atmosphere Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Murong,Meng, Zhiyong. Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(7):3574-3593. |
APA | Zhang, Murong,&Meng, Zhiyong.(2018).Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(7),3574-3593. |
MLA | Zhang, Murong,et al."Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.7(2018):3574-3593. |
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