Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD028506 |
Toward the Improvement of Subseasonal Prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System | |
Zhu, Yuejian1; Zhou, Xiaqiong2; Li, Wei2; Hou, Dingchen1; Melhauser, Christopher2; Sinsky, Eric2; Pena, Malaquias4; Fu, Bing2; Guan, Hong3; Kolczynski, Walter2; Wobus, Richard2; Tallapragada, Vijay1 | |
2018-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:13页码:6732-6745 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | In order to provide ensemble-based subseasonal (weeks 3 and 4) forecasts to support the operational mission of the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, experiments have been designed through the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project to investigate the predictability in both tropical and extratropical regions. The control experiment simply extends the current operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS; version 11) from 16 to 35days. In addition to the control, the parallel experiments will be mainly designed to focus on three areas: (1) improving model uncertainty representation for the tropics through stochastic physical perturbations; (2) considering the impact of the ocean by using a two-tiered sea surface temperature approach; and (3) testing a new scale-aware convection scheme to improve the model physics for tropical convection and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecasts. All experiments are initialized every 5days at 0000 UTC during the period of May 2014-May 2016 (25months). In the tropics, MJO forecast skill has been improved from an average of 12.5days (control) to nearly 22days by combining all three modifications to GEFS. In the extratropics, the ensemble mean anomaly correlation of 500-hPa geopotential height improved over weeks 3 and 4. In addition, the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (of the Northern Hemisphere raw surface temperature (land only) is improved as well. A similar result is found in the Contiguous United States precipitation, although forecast skill is extremely low. Our results imply that calibration may be important and necessary for surface temperature and precipitation forecast for the subseasonal timescale due to the large systematic model errors. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439799300004 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; NCEP ; PREDICTABILITY ; SKILL ; MJO ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32584 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, EMC, NCEP, NWS, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 2.NOAA, IMSG, EMC, NCEP,NWS, College Pk, MD USA; 3.NOAA, SRG, EMC, NCEP,NWS, College Pk, MD USA; 4.Univ Connecticut, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Storrs, CT USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhu, Yuejian,Zhou, Xiaqiong,Li, Wei,et al. Toward the Improvement of Subseasonal Prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(13):6732-6745. |
APA | Zhu, Yuejian.,Zhou, Xiaqiong.,Li, Wei.,Hou, Dingchen.,Melhauser, Christopher.,...&Tallapragada, Vijay.(2018).Toward the Improvement of Subseasonal Prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(13),6732-6745. |
MLA | Zhu, Yuejian,et al."Toward the Improvement of Subseasonal Prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.13(2018):6732-6745. |
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