资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Predicting the erosive potential of rain events and the overall risk of soil erosion (and other hydrologic phenomena triggered by or related to extreme rainfall) requires understanding of the background meteorology that affects rainfall characteristics. The sensitivity of total rainfall kinetic energy, 15-min peak intensities, and event total depth were evaluated with respect to pre-event atmospheric conditions in the northern part of the Pannonian Plain. Five static stability parameters: the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), Total Totals index (TT), K-index, and the composite CAPE-shear parameter were used as proxies describing the atmospheric static stability and the effect of wind shear on the development of convective precipitation. In addition to these stability parameters, near-surface air temperature and dew point temperature at 2-m above the ground were used as additional covariates in bivariate quantile regression. The primary objective of this paper was to determine the sensitivity of the rainfall characteristics to changes in the analyzed covariates and their ability to explain changes in the distribution of the considered rainfall characteristics. The analyses revealed a strong responsiveness of rainfall kinetic energy and 15-min peak rainfall intensities to dew point temperature with incremental changes following the super–CC (7–14%K⁻¹) scaling regime when near-surface dew point temperature exceeds ~288 K. The findings have important implications for forecasting the erosive potential of rains and estimations of soil erosion in the future.