Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD028597 |
Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble | |
Carrillo, Carlos M.; Ault, Toby R.; Wilks, Daniel S. | |
2018-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:11页码:5913-5926 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The predictability of spring onset is assessed using an index of its interannual variability (the "extended spring index" or SI-x) and output from the North American Multimodel Ensemble reforecast experiment. The input data to compute SI-x were treated with a daily joint bias correction approach, and the SI-x outputs computed from the North American Multimodel Ensemble were postprocessed using an ensemble model output statistic approachnonhomogeneous Gaussian regression. This ensemble model output statistic approach was used to quantify the effects of training period length and ensemble size on forecast skill. The lead time for predicting the timing of spring onset is found to be from 10 to 60 days, with the higher end of this range located along a narrow band between 35 degrees N to 45 degrees N in the eastern United States. Using continuous rank probability scores and skill score (SS) thresholds, this study demonstrates that ranges of positive predictability of SI-x fall into two categories: 10-40 and 40-60 days. Using higher skill thresholds (SS equal to 0.1 and 0.2), predictability is confined to a lower range with values around 10-30 days. The postprocessing work using joint bias correction improves the predictive skill for SI-x relative to the untreated input data set. Using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression, a positive change in the SS is noted in regions where the skill with joint bias correction shows evidence of improvement. These findings suggest that the start of spring might be predictable on intraseasonal time horizons, which in turn could be useful for farmers, growers, and stakeholders making decisions on these time scales. |
英文关键词 | Spring onset EMOS NMME predictability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436110800010 |
WOS关键词 | SCORING RULES ; PREDICTION ; EARLIER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32395 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carrillo, Carlos M.,Ault, Toby R.,Wilks, Daniel S.. Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(11):5913-5926. |
APA | Carrillo, Carlos M.,Ault, Toby R.,&Wilks, Daniel S..(2018).Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(11),5913-5926. |
MLA | Carrillo, Carlos M.,et al."Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.11(2018):5913-5926. |
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