GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018JD028597
Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Carrillo, Carlos M.; Ault, Toby R.; Wilks, Daniel S.
2018-06-16
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2018
卷号123期号:11页码:5913-5926
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The predictability of spring onset is assessed using an index of its interannual variability (the "extended spring index" or SI-x) and output from the North American Multimodel Ensemble reforecast experiment. The input data to compute SI-x were treated with a daily joint bias correction approach, and the SI-x outputs computed from the North American Multimodel Ensemble were postprocessed using an ensemble model output statistic approachnonhomogeneous Gaussian regression. This ensemble model output statistic approach was used to quantify the effects of training period length and ensemble size on forecast skill. The lead time for predicting the timing of spring onset is found to be from 10 to 60 days, with the higher end of this range located along a narrow band between 35 degrees N to 45 degrees N in the eastern United States. Using continuous rank probability scores and skill score (SS) thresholds, this study demonstrates that ranges of positive predictability of SI-x fall into two categories: 10-40 and 40-60 days. Using higher skill thresholds (SS equal to 0.1 and 0.2), predictability is confined to a lower range with values around 10-30 days. The postprocessing work using joint bias correction improves the predictive skill for SI-x relative to the untreated input data set. Using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression, a positive change in the SS is noted in regions where the skill with joint bias correction shows evidence of improvement. These findings suggest that the start of spring might be predictable on intraseasonal time horizons, which in turn could be useful for farmers, growers, and stakeholders making decisions on these time scales.


英文关键词Spring onset EMOS NMME predictability
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000436110800010
WOS关键词SCORING RULES ; PREDICTION ; EARLIER
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:5[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32395
专题气候变化
作者单位Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA
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GB/T 7714
Carrillo, Carlos M.,Ault, Toby R.,Wilks, Daniel S.. Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(11):5913-5926.
APA Carrillo, Carlos M.,Ault, Toby R.,&Wilks, Daniel S..(2018).Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(11),5913-5926.
MLA Carrillo, Carlos M.,et al."Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.11(2018):5913-5926.
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