Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027219 |
Trend in the Co-Occurrence of Extreme Daily Rainfall in West Africa Since 1950 | |
Blanchet, Juliette1; Aly, Claire1; Vischel, Theo1; Panthou, Geremy1; Sane, Youssouph2; Kane, Mariane Diop2 | |
2018-02-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:3页码:1536-1551 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Senegal |
英文摘要 | We propose in this paper a statistical framework to study the evolution of the co-occurrence of extreme daily rainfall in West Africa since 1950. We consider two regions subject to contrasted rainfall regimes: Senegal and the central Sahel. We study the likelihood of the 3% largest daily rainfall (considering all days) in each region to occur simultaneously and, in a 20year moving window approach, how this likelihood has evolved with time. Our method uses an anisotropic max-stable process allowing us to properly represent the co-occurrence of daily extremes and including the possibility of a preferred direction of co-occurrence. In Senegal, a change is found in the 1980s, with preferred co-occurrence along the E-50-N direction (i.e., along azimuth 50 degrees) before the 1980s and weaker isotropic co-occurrence afterward. In central Sahel, a change is also found in the 1980s but surprisingly with contrasting results. Anisotropy along the E-W direction is found over the whole period, with greater extension after the 1980s. The paper discusses how the co-occurrence of extremes can provide a qualitative indicator on change in size and propagation of the strongest storms. This calls for further research to identify the atmospheric processes responsible for such contrasted changes in storm properties. Plain Language Summary We propose in this paper a statistical framework to study the evolution of the co-occurrence of extreme daily rainfall in West Africa since 1950. We consider two regions subject to contrasted rainfall regimes: Senegal and the central Sahel. In Senegal, a change is found in the 1980s, with preferred co-occurrence along the E-50-N direction (i.e., along azimuth 50 degrees) before the 1980s and weaker isotropic co-occurrence afterward. In the central Sahel, a change is also found in the 1980s but surprisingly with contrasting results. Anisotropy along the E-W direction is found over the whole period, with greater extension after the 1980s. The paper discusses how the co-occurrence of extremes can provide a qualitative indicator on change in size and propagation of the strongest storms. This calls for further research to identify the atmospheric processes responsible for such contrasted changes in storm properties. |
英文关键词 | extreme rainfall West Africa co-occurrence trend |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426074000004 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FRENCH ALPS ; SAHEL ; VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; INFERENCE ; GEOSTATISTICS ; DEPENDENCE ; FREQUENCY ; RUNOFF |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32296 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, Grenoble, France; 2.ANACIM, Div Phys Sci, Dakar, Senegal |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Blanchet, Juliette,Aly, Claire,Vischel, Theo,et al. Trend in the Co-Occurrence of Extreme Daily Rainfall in West Africa Since 1950[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(3):1536-1551. |
APA | Blanchet, Juliette,Aly, Claire,Vischel, Theo,Panthou, Geremy,Sane, Youssouph,&Kane, Mariane Diop.(2018).Trend in the Co-Occurrence of Extreme Daily Rainfall in West Africa Since 1950.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(3),1536-1551. |
MLA | Blanchet, Juliette,et al."Trend in the Co-Occurrence of Extreme Daily Rainfall in West Africa Since 1950".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.3(2018):1536-1551. |
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