Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa6dc |
Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming world | |
Zhou, Baiquan1,2; Zhai, Panmao1; Chen, Yang1; Yu, Rong3 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Projected changes of the thermal growing season (TGS) over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels are investigated using 22 CMIP5 models under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The multi-model mean projections indicate Northern Eurasia will experience extended and intensified TGSs in a warmer world. The prolongation of TGSs under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming is attributed to both earlier onset and later termination, with the latter factor playing a dominating role. Interestingly, earlier onset is of greater importance under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 in prolonging TGS as the world warms by an additional 0.5 degrees C. Under both RCPs, growing degree day sum (GDD) above 5 degrees C is anticipated to increase by 0 degrees C-450 degrees C days and 0 degrees C-650 degrees C days over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming, respectively. However, effective GDD (EGDD) which accumulates optimum temperature for the growth of wheat, exhibits a decline in the south of Central Asia under warmer climates. Therefore, for wheat production over Northern Eurasia, adverse effects incurred by scorching temperatures and resultant inadequacy in water availability may counteract benefits from lengthening and warming TGS. In response to a future 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warmer world, proper management and scientifically-tailored adaptation are imperative to optimize local-regional agricultural production. |
英文关键词 | climate change 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming thermal growing season growing degree days |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426249200001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; PLANT PHENOLOGY ; CROP PRODUCTION ; WHEAT ; TEMPERATURES ; 20TH-CENTURY ; AGRICULTURE ; VEGETATION ; 2ND-HALF ; EXTREMES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32148 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, China Meteorol Adm, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Coll Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhou, Baiquan,Zhai, Panmao,Chen, Yang,et al. Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming world[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(3). |
APA | Zhou, Baiquan,Zhai, Panmao,Chen, Yang,&Yu, Rong.(2018).Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming world.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(3). |
MLA | Zhou, Baiquan,et al."Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming world".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.3(2018). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论