Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL090407 |
Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models | |
L. Mantiloni; T. Davis; A.B. Gaete Rojas; E. Rivalta | |
2021-02-16 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because of the uncertain location of future vents. A statistical‐mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally and with surface excavations, and observe air‐filled crack trajectories. We use the observed surface arrivals to sample the distributions of parameters describing the stress state of the gelatin block, combining deterministic crack trajectory simulations with a Monte Carlo approach. While the individual stress parameters remain unconstrained, we effectively retrieve their ratio and successfully forecast the arrival points of subsequent cracks. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/315702 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | L. Mantiloni,T. Davis,A.B. Gaete Rojas,et al. Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | L. Mantiloni,T. Davis,A.B. Gaete Rojas,&E. Rivalta.(2021).Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | L. Mantiloni,et al."Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
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