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Vaccines may not signal immediate end to epidemic, researchers say | |
admin | |
2021-01-21 | |
发布年 | 2021 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 英国 |
领域 | 资源环境 |
正文(英文) | ![]() ![]() The vaccine rollout may not signal an immediate end to the Covid-19 epidemic, according to latest modeling from Imperial’s Covid-19 Response Team. Interim results from the team’s model suggests that the timing of relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, while managing the impact on hospitals, will depend on the speed and uptake of the vaccine rollout. “The impact of the vaccine will not be instantaneous, and will only be seen once we get high coverage of the vaccine. This depends on how fast it can be rolled out and how many people take it." Dr Anne Cori Imperial Covid-19 Response Team The researchers estimate that in all scenarios, full-lifting of restrictions before the summer will lead to prolonged and potentially multiple periods of pressure on hospitals, and substantial additional deaths. The researchers say that partial lifting of NPIs before patient numbers in hospital have dropped significantly will have the same consequences. The team say that Covid is currently overwhelming hospitals and there is a severe shortage in resources, including beds and staff. There are nearly 40,000 Covid patients currently in hospital and the researchers say that this number will take some time to fall significantly.
Imperial’s researchers were speaking at a Science Media Centre briefing, alongside academics from the University of Edinburgh and University of Warwick. How many people need to be vaccinated to achieve 'herd immunity'?Dr Marc Baguelin, from the School of Public Health, said: “Despite the large number of deaths already, population immunity is still limited. We estimate around 19% of the UK population had been infected by mid-January. "This might be difficult to be reached as efficacy – in particular against infection – means that we would need to vaccinate even more people to get this level of protection at the population level. "The emergence of the new variant, which is more transmissible, means that this level needs to be even higher and that it might not even be possible to bring R below one.” How long will the vaccine rollout take?Dr Anne Cori, from the School of Public Health, said: “It’s important to highlight that the vaccine rollout will take a lot of time, even in most optimistic scenario it would take until late April to give only one dose to everyone eligible in the UK population.” What impact will the vaccine rollout have and when can restrictions be relaxed?Dr Cori said: “The impact of the vaccine will not be instantaneous, and will only be seen once we get high coverage of the vaccine. This depends on how fast it can be rolled out and how many people take it. "There also remain questions about long-covid and the future of the epidemic.” |
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来源平台 | Imperial College London |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/312170 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. Vaccines may not signal immediate end to epidemic, researchers say. 2021. |
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