Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/ele.12948 |
Indicators of transitions in biological systems | |
Clements, Christopher F.1,2; Ozgul, Arpat2 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGY LETTERS
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ISSN | 1461-023X |
EISSN | 1461-0248 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 21期号:6页码:905-919 |
文章类型 | Review |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting the fate of biological systems is a key goal in ecology. One popular approach is the search for early warning signals (EWSs) based on alternative stable states theory. In this review, we cover the theory behind nonlinearity in dynamic systems and techniques to detect the loss of resilience that can indicate state transitions. We describe the research done on generic abundance-based signals of instability that are derived from the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which represent the genesis of EWSs research. We highlight some of the issues facing the detection of such signals in biological systems - which are inherently complex and show low signal-to-noise ratios. We then document research on alternative signals of instability, including measuring shifts in spatial autocorrelation and trait dynamics, and discuss potential future directions for EWSs research based on detailed demographic and phenotypic data. We set EWSs research in the greater field of predictive ecology and weigh up the costs and benefits of simplicity vs. complexity in predictive models, and how the available data should steer the development of future methods. Finally, we identify some key unanswered questions that, if solved, could improve the applicability of these methods. |
英文关键词 | Critical slowing down early warning signals leading indicators predictive ecology regime shifts resilience tipping points traits |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431987100014 |
WOS关键词 | EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS ; CRITICAL SLOWING-DOWN ; ALTERNATIVE STABLE STATES ; REGIME SHIFTS ; BODY-SIZE ; TIPPING POINTS ; VEGETATION PATTERNS ; CATASTROPHIC SHIFTS ; LEADING INDICATORS ; DECISION-MAKING |
WOS类目 | Ecology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31174 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Melbourne, Sch Biosci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia; 2.Univ Zurich, Dept Evolutionary Biol & Environm Studies, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Clements, Christopher F.,Ozgul, Arpat. Indicators of transitions in biological systems[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2018,21(6):905-919. |
APA | Clements, Christopher F.,&Ozgul, Arpat.(2018).Indicators of transitions in biological systems.ECOLOGY LETTERS,21(6),905-919. |
MLA | Clements, Christopher F.,et al."Indicators of transitions in biological systems".ECOLOGY LETTERS 21.6(2018):905-919. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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