资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

In central California, periodic earthquake occurrence suggests a relationship with annual hydrological, atmospheric, thermal, and tidal loadings. In catalogs of declustered earthquakes within 100 km from Parkfield, California, we study a semiannual periodicity for the monthly number of ≤ 7.2‐km‐deep earthquakes and the monthly median hypocenter depth over 1994‐2002 and 2006‐2014. Peak‐trough months in fitted periodic components differ between time spans and event populations. Deeper earthquakes present no semiannual and a weak annual periodicity. Although modeled pore pressure shows a Spring peak, when added to the elastic Coulomb stress from surface hydrospheric loads it fails to predict a 6‐month periodicity for 2006‐2014. In 1994‐2002, the pore‐pressure amplitude appears to be of same order as the elastic stress and may have had a stronger effect. In 2006‐2014, we did not find load model parameters explaining the observed pattern or apparent changes following the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes.