Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2054-5

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1007/s10584-017-2054-5
	Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems
	Liu, De Li 1; 39;Leary, Garry J.2
	2017-10-01
发表期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN	0165-0009
EISSN	1573-1480
出版年	2017
卷号	144 期号:4
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Australia; England
英文摘要	The use of different downscaling methods (DSMs) to generate downscaled daily climate (DDC) data for assessing climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems was investigated. DDC data were generated from SRES A2 emission scenario simulations of seven global climate models (GCMs) using two different change factor methods, denoted as DTS and RSC, and two weather generator methods, LARS-WG (LWG) and NWAI-WG (NWG). The DDC data were used to drive the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) wheat model. Significant differences in future changes in simulated crop growth and soil water balance were found between the four DSMs. For raw GCM output, multi-GCM mean changes by the mid-twenty-first century in annual mean temperature (AMT) ranged from +1.2 to +2.0 A degrees C and in annual rainfall (AR) ranged from -11 to -5% across the 6 study sites. The DTS, LWG and NWG SDMs modified the raw GCM changes in both AMT and AR. As a result, climate change impacts on crop growth and soil water balance are not well correlated between DSMs. Since different DSMs give different impact results, we conclude that in addition to using multiple GCMs, selecting appropriate DSMs can be an important consideration in climate change impact assessments.
领域	气候变化
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000411875800012
WOS关键词	STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS ; CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT ; DIVERSE CLIMATES ; LARS-WG ; AAFC-WG ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATIONS ; AUSTRALIA ; YIELD
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29842
专题	气候变化
作者单位	1.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; 2.Agr Victoria Res, Dept Econ Dev Jobs Transport & Resources, PB 260, Horsham, Vic 3400, Australia; 3.Agr Victoria Res, Dept Econ Dev Jobs Transport & Resources, PB 260, Rutherglen, Vic 3400, Australia; 4.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 5.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 6.Met Off, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, De Li,39;Leary, Garry J.. Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,144(4).
APA	Liu, De Li,&39;Leary, Garry J..(2017).Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems.CLIMATIC CHANGE,144(4).
MLA	Liu, De Li,et al."Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems".CLIMATIC CHANGE 144.4(2017).