Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models

doi:10.1029/2020GL089519

El Niño, as the dominant interannual variability for global climate, exhibits different spatial “flavors” with distinct global impacts, and the ensemble of current model projects there will be an increase in the frequency of central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) in a warmer world. In this study, we identified that future changes in CP El Niño frequency are significantly related to the simulated cold tongue strength in CMIP5/6 models. A model simulating a stronger cold tongue tends to project more frequent CP El Niño events under global warming, due to the positive zonal advection feedback in the central Pacific. Based on this relationship, we calibrate the CP El Niño frequency projections using the emergent constraint concept, and reveal that the changes in CP El Niño frequency under global warming as projected in previous multi‐model ensembles more likely decrease because of an excessive cold tongue in CMIP5/6 models.

DOI	10.1029/2020GL089519
	Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models
	Wenping Jiang; Ping Huang; Gen Li; Gang Huang
	2020-09-22
发表期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
出版年	2020
英文摘要	El Niño, as the dominant interannual variability for global climate, exhibits different spatial “flavors” with distinct global impacts, and the ensemble of current model projects there will be an increase in the frequency of central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) in a warmer world. In this study, we identified that future changes in CP El Niño frequency are significantly related to the simulated cold tongue strength in CMIP5/6 models. A model simulating a stronger cold tongue tends to project more frequent CP El Niño events under global warming, due to the positive zonal advection feedback in the central Pacific. Based on this relationship, we calibrate the CP El Niño frequency projections using the emergent constraint concept, and reveal that the changes in CP El Niño frequency under global warming as projected in previous multi‐model ensembles more likely decrease because of an excessive cold tongue in CMIP5/6 models.
领域	气候变化
URL	查看原文
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/296365
专题	气候变化
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wenping Jiang,Ping Huang,Gen Li,et al. Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020.
APA	Wenping Jiang,Ping Huang,Gen Li,&Gang Huang.(2020).Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models.Geophysical Research Letters.
MLA	Wenping Jiang,et al."Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models".Geophysical Research Letters (2020).

您对该条目有什么异议，请向管理员反馈。
内容：
Email：	*
单位:
验证码：	刷新

您在知识库使用过程中有什么好的想法或者建议可以反馈给我们。
标题：	*
内容：
Email：	*
验证码：	刷新

条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。

资源环境科技发展态势分析平台