Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL089519 |
Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models | |
Wenping Jiang; Ping Huang; Gen Li; Gang Huang | |
2020-09-22 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | El Niño, as the dominant interannual variability for global climate, exhibits different spatial “flavors” with distinct global impacts, and the ensemble of current model projects there will be an increase in the frequency of central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) in a warmer world. In this study, we identified that future changes in CP El Niño frequency are significantly related to the simulated cold tongue strength in CMIP5/6 models. A model simulating a stronger cold tongue tends to project more frequent CP El Niño events under global warming, due to the positive zonal advection feedback in the central Pacific. Based on this relationship, we calibrate the CP El Niño frequency projections using the emergent constraint concept, and reveal that the changes in CP El Niño frequency under global warming as projected in previous multi‐model ensembles more likely decrease because of an excessive cold tongue in CMIP5/6 models. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/296365 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wenping Jiang,Ping Huang,Gen Li,et al. Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Wenping Jiang,Ping Huang,Gen Li,&Gang Huang.(2020).Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Wenping Jiang,et al."Emergent constraint on the frequency of central Pacific El Niño under global warming by the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CMIP5/6 models".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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