Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0018.1 |
Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) | |
Munsell, Erin B.1,2; Zhang, Fuqing1,2; Sippel, Jason A.3,4; Braun, Scott A.5; Weng, Yonghui1,2 | |
2017-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 74期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The dynamics and predictability of the intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are explored through a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates dropsondes collected during NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation. The 126-h forecasts are initialized when Edouard was designated as a tropical depression and include Edouard's near-rapid intensification (RI) from a tropical storm to a strong category-2 hurricane. Although the deterministic forecast was very successful and many members correctly forecasted Edouard's intensification, there was significant spread in the timing of intensification among the members of the ensemble. Utilizing composite groups created according to the near-RI-onset times of the members, it is shown that, for increasing magnitudes of deep-layer shear, RI onset is increasingly delayed; intensification will not occur once a critical shear threshold is exceeded. Although the timing of intensification varies by as much as 48 h, a decrease in shear is observed across the intensifying composite groups similar to 6-12 h prior to RI. This decrease in shear is accompanied by a reduction in vortex tilt, as the precession and subsequent alignment process begins similar to 24-48 h prior to RI. Sensitivity experiments reveal that some of the variation in RI timing can be attributed to differences in initial intensity, as the earliest-developing members have the strongest initial vortices regardless of their environment. Significant sensitivity and limited predictability exists for members with weaker initial vortices and/or that are embedded in less conducive environments, under which the randomness of moist convective processes and minute initial differences distant from the surface center can produce divergent forecasts. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394341100015 |
WOS关键词 | VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS ; INITIAL CONDITION SENSITIVITY ; PERMITTING ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS ; TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ; RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; STORM MOTION ; BONNIE 1998 ; PART II ; CONVECTION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29594 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Penn State Univ, Ctr Adv Data Assimilat & Predictabil Tech, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 3.IM Syst Grp, Rockville, MD USA; 4.NOAA, Environm Modeling Ctr, College Pk, MD USA; 5.NASA, Lab Mesoscale Atmospher Proc, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Munsell, Erin B.,Zhang, Fuqing,Sippel, Jason A.,et al. Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2017,74(2). |
APA | Munsell, Erin B.,Zhang, Fuqing,Sippel, Jason A.,Braun, Scott A.,&Weng, Yonghui.(2017).Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014).JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,74(2). |
MLA | Munsell, Erin B.,et al."Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 74.2(2017). |
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