Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0098.1 |
Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial-Condition Resolution | |
Potvin, Corey K.1,2,3; Murillo, Elisa M.2,4,5; Flora, Montgomery L.2; Wheatley, Dustan M.1,3 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 74期号:1页码:43611 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Observational and model resolution limitations currently preclude analysis of the smallest scales important to numerical prediction of convective storms. These missing scales can be recovered if the forecast model is integrated on a sufficiently fine grid, but not before errors are introduced that subsequently grow in scale and magnitude. This study is the first to systematically evaluate the impact of these initial-condition (IC) resolution errors on high-resolution forecasts of organized convection. This is done by comparing high-resolution supercell simulations generated using identical model settings but successively coarsened ICs. Consistent with the Warn-on-Forecast paradigm, the simulations are initialized with ongoing storms and integrated for 2 h. Both idealized and full-physics experiments are performed in order to examine how more realistic model settings modulate the error evolution. In all experiments, scales removed from the IC (wavelengths, 2, 4, 8, or 16 km) regenerate within 10-20 min of model integration. While the forecast errors arising from the initial absence of these scales become quantitatively large in many instances, the qualitative storm evolution is relatively insensitive to the IC resolution. It therefore appears that adopting much finer forecast (e.g., 250 m) than analysis (e.g., 3 km) grids for data assimilation and prediction would improve supercell forecasts given limited computational resources. This motivates continued development of mixed-resolution systems. The relative insensitivity to IC resolution further suggests that convective forecasting can be more readily advanced by improving model physics and numerics and expanding extrastorm observational coverage than by increasing intrastorm observational density. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000392419300002 |
WOS关键词 | WARN-ON-FORECAST ; ENSEMBLE DATA ASSIMILATION ; KALMAN FILTER ; PART I ; EXPLICIT FORECASTS ; CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ; PREDICTABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; PARAMETERIZATION ; MICROPHYSICS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29349 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oklahoma, Cooperat Inst Mesoscale Meteorol Studies, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 2.Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 3.NOAA, OAR, Natl Severe Storms Lab, Norman, OK USA; 4.Natl Weather Ctr Res Experiences Undergrad, Norman, OK USA; 5.Univ Louisiana Monroe, Monroe, LA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Potvin, Corey K.,Murillo, Elisa M.,Flora, Montgomery L.,et al. Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial-Condition Resolution[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2017,74(1):43611. |
APA | Potvin, Corey K.,Murillo, Elisa M.,Flora, Montgomery L.,&Wheatley, Dustan M..(2017).Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial-Condition Resolution.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,74(1),43611. |
MLA | Potvin, Corey K.,et al."Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial-Condition Resolution".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 74.1(2017):43611. |
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