资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This study reveals that the yearday of open‐water onset (t_open) in Bering Strait can be predicted with a lead time of about 4 months using a regression equation t_open = 37.45C_CN + 125.2 (in Julian days), with an averaged absolute error of 5 days and the maximum error of 12 days, where C_CN is the ice concentration averaged from January 16^th to February 15^th near Cape Navarin. This “predictor” is revealed through analyzing the solution of a regional ocean and sea‐ice model. A key factor contribution to the prediction is that the prior winter ice concentration is controlled by the sea surface temperature, and persists into the start of the melting phase near the marginal ice zone in the Cape Navarin area. As ice melts near Cape Navarin, successive melting due to solar heat absorption and lateral heat transport occurs rapidly downstream along Anadyr Current.