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DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0373.1 |
Estimating the Intrinsic Limit of Predictability Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme | |
Selz, Tobias | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES |
ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 76期号:3页码:757-765 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Global model simulations together with a stochastic convection scheme are used to assess the intrinsic limit of predictability that originates from convection up to planetary scales. The stochastic convection scheme has been shown to introduce an appropriate amount of variability onto the model grid without the need to resolve the convection explicitly. This largely reduces computational costs and enables a set of 12 cases equally distributed over 1 year with five ensemble members for each case, generated by the stochastic convection scheme. As a metric, difference kinetic energy at 300 hPa over the midlatitudes, both north and south, is used. With this metric the intrinsic limit is estimated to be about 17 days when a threshold of 80% of the saturation level is applied. The error level at 3.5 days roughly compares to the initial-condition uncertainty of the current ECMWF data assimilation system, which suggests a potential improvement of 3.5 forecast days through perfecting the initial conditions. Error-growth experiments that use a deterministic convection scheme show smaller errors of about half the size at early forecast times and an estimate of intrinsic predictability that is about 10% longer, confirming the overconfidence of deterministic convection schemes. |
英文关键词 | Deep convection Ensembles Convective parameterization Numerical weather prediction/forecasting |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460001100001 |
WOS关键词 | UPSCALE ERROR GROWTH ; WEATHER ; SIMULATION ; DYNAMICS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29250 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | Ludwig Maximilians Univ Munchen, Meteorol Inst, Munich, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Selz, Tobias. Estimating the Intrinsic Limit of Predictability Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2019,76(3):757-765. |
APA | Selz, Tobias.(2019).Estimating the Intrinsic Limit of Predictability Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,76(3),757-765. |
MLA | Selz, Tobias."Estimating the Intrinsic Limit of Predictability Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 76.3(2019):757-765. |
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