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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076297 |
Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties | |
Goldenson, N.1; Mauger, G.2; Leung, L. R.3; Bitz, C. M.1; Rhines, A.1 | |
2018-01-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:2页码:926-934 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Nino and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble of opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts. |
英文关键词 | climate uncertainty |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425514300050 |
WOS关键词 | VARIABILITY ; MECHANISMS ; SCENARIO |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28985 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Univ Washington, Climate Impacts Grp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 3.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Goldenson, N.,Mauger, G.,Leung, L. R.,et al. Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(2):926-934. |
APA | Goldenson, N.,Mauger, G.,Leung, L. R.,Bitz, C. M.,&Rhines, A..(2018).Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(2),926-934. |
MLA | Goldenson, N.,et al."Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.2(2018):926-934. |
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