Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104942 |
Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China | |
Mou, Shiyu1,2; Shi, Peng1,2; Qu, Simin1,2; Feng, Ying1,2; Chen, Chen1,2; Dong, Fengcheng1,2 | |
2020-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 240 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The objective of this paper is to investigate the projected regional responses of univariate and bivariate behaviors of extreme precipitation to climate change over the upper-middle Huaihe River Basin. Based on twelve GCM outputs under historical, RCP4.5 and the observations at 32 rainfall stations, the equidistant cumulative distribution function matching method (EDCDFm) was utilized to bias correct daily precipitation during the historical (1961-2005) and future (2021-2080) periods. Four precipitation indices combinations were introduced based on eight precipitation indices to characterize the regional-scale changes of precipitation events, which designate the duration, intensity and amount of heavy and weak precipitation in a year. Their dependence structures were captured by Copulas. Kendall return period (KRP) were applied to discuss hazard scenarios and we quantified the spatial variability of KRPs under different marginal values. The results indicated that projected precipitation characteristics including the average intensity, the amount of annual precipitation, the intensity and amount of extreme precipitation together with annual extremes displayed increasing trends, while the changes of consecutive wet and dry days did not present pronounced trends. Decreased KRPs in the vast majority of the territory manifested that the frequency of simultaneous floods and droughts in a year as well as that of extreme heavy precipitation events would augment. Obvious spatial heterogeneity of the changes of KRP was partly attributed to the topography difference, especially the coastal areas along the main stream of the Huaihe River. Consequently, there will be a higher risk of water resources-related issues in this region for upcoming decades. |
英文关键词 | CMIP5 Precipitation indices Spatial distribution Copula function Kendall return period |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000527314900004 |
WOS关键词 | SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS ; RETURN PERIOD ; COPULA ; INDEXES ; DESIGN ; ENSEMBLE ; EVENTS ; DEPENDENCE ; FLOODS ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289302 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China; 2.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mou, Shiyu,Shi, Peng,Qu, Simin,et al. Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2020,240. |
APA | Mou, Shiyu,Shi, Peng,Qu, Simin,Feng, Ying,Chen, Chen,&Dong, Fengcheng.(2020).Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,240. |
MLA | Mou, Shiyu,et al."Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 240(2020). |
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