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DOI | 10.1029/2018GL077641 |
Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction-Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand | |
Kaneko, Yoshihiro1; Wallace, Laura M.1,2; Hamling, Ian J.1; Gerstenberger, Matthew C.1 | |
2018-05-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:9页码:3932-3941 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand; USA |
英文摘要 | Slow slip events (SSEs) have been documented in subduction zones worldwide, yet their implications for future earthquake occurrence are not well understood. Here we develop a relatively simple, simulation-based method for estimating the probability of megathrust earthquakes following tectonic events that induce any transient stress perturbations. This method has been applied to the locked Hikurangi megathrust (New Zealand) surrounded on all sides by the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake and SSEs. Our models indicate the annual probability of a M >= 7.8 earthquake over 1year after the Kaikoura earthquake increases by 1.3-18 times relative to the pre-Kaikoura probability, and the absolute probability is in the range of 0.6-7%. We find that probabilities of a large earthquake are mainly controlled by the ratio of the total stressing rate induced by all nearby tectonic sources to the mean stress drop of earthquakes. Our method can be applied to evaluate the potential for triggering a megathrust earthquake following SSEs in other subduction zones. |
英文关键词 | subduction zones earthquake probability slow slip events earthquake simulations megathrust earthquakes |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434111700021 |
WOS关键词 | TOHOKU-OKI EARTHQUAKE ; KAIKOURA EARTHQUAKE ; NANKAI TROUGH ; STATIC STRESS ; JAPAN ; INTERFACE ; RUPTURE ; FAULTS ; TERM |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28763 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.GNS Sci, Lower Hutt, New Zealand; 2.Univ Texas Austin, Inst Geophys, Austin, TX 78712 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kaneko, Yoshihiro,Wallace, Laura M.,Hamling, Ian J.,et al. Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction-Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(9):3932-3941. |
APA | Kaneko, Yoshihiro,Wallace, Laura M.,Hamling, Ian J.,&Gerstenberger, Matthew C..(2018).Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction-Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(9),3932-3941. |
MLA | Kaneko, Yoshihiro,et al."Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction-Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.9(2018):3932-3941. |
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