Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL072908 |
The extreme El Nino of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus | |
Hu, Shineng; Fedorov, Alexey V. | |
2017-04-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Slower rates of increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) after 2000, dubbed "global warming hiatus," recently gave way to a rapid temperature rise. This rise coincided with persistent warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific between March 2014 and May 2016, which peaked as the 2015 extreme El Nino. Here we show that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tightly controls interannual variations in atmospheric heating rate in the tropics (r > 0.9), allowing us to construct a simple, physically based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols produced by volcanoes. The model closely reproduces GMST changes since 1880, including the global warming hiatus and the subsequent temperature rise. Our results confirm that weak El Nino activity, rather than volcanic eruptions, was the cause of the hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Nino conditions concurrent with the continuing global warming trend. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000401847500044 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; NATURAL VARIABILITY ; DECADAL VARIABILITY ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; ENSO ; PERSISTENCE ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28452 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Yale Univ, Dept Geol & Geophys, New Haven, CT 06520 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hu, Shineng,Fedorov, Alexey V.. The extreme El Nino of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(8). |
APA | Hu, Shineng,&Fedorov, Alexey V..(2017).The extreme El Nino of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(8). |
MLA | Hu, Shineng,et al."The extreme El Nino of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.8(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论