Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076159 |
Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5 degrees C Warmer World | |
Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk | |
2018-02-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:4页码:1963-1971 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P approximate to 10%) for global warming of +1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P>99%) for global warming of +2 degrees C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5 degrees C warming (P<<1%) and has low likelihood (P approximate to 10%) to disappear even for +2 degrees C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C global warming. |
英文关键词 | Arctic sea ice global warming 1 5 degrees C |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427564300031 |
WOS关键词 | TRENDS ; VARIABILITY ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28296 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Niederdrenk, Anne Laura,Notz, Dirk. Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5 degrees C Warmer World[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(4):1963-1971. |
APA | Niederdrenk, Anne Laura,&Notz, Dirk.(2018).Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5 degrees C Warmer World.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(4),1963-1971. |
MLA | Niederdrenk, Anne Laura,et al."Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5 degrees C Warmer World".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.4(2018):1963-1971. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论