Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
Any Rain on Victoria Lake Is Only a Drop in the Bucket: A CGE Analysis of the Effects of Water Shortages on Food Security in Uganda | |
Jan H. van Heerden; Elizabeth L. Roos; Philip D. Adams; N. Kilimani | |
2020-05-07 | |
出版年 | 2020 |
国家 | 瑞典 |
领域 | 资源环境 |
英文摘要 | Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of Uganda, we simulate the effects of water shortages and their impact on agricultural production and the broader Ugandan economy. It is expected that Ugandan crop production will be hit hard over the next forty years by increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation associated with climate change. We use forecasts from the literature for ten specific crop outputs to simulate the effects of weather-related agricultural disruption on the rest of the economy. We are particularly interested in the effects on food security in Uganda. We find that Uganda is far from being food secure, and hypothesize that if the pessimistic forecasts from the literature were to become true, then the situation would deteriorate significantly. The adaptation strategies for Uganda should focus on the following: the country should diversify agricultural production to include more hardy crops; build transport infrastructure to improve access to the available food to all citizens, but also to enable the expansion of the manufacturing industry, which is dependent on trade between regions; improve sanitation conditions significantly in both rural and urban areas, and develop water infrastructure so that households and agricultural industries can gain better access to an increasingly scarce resource. Do you want to read the rest of this chapter? |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | Environment for Development Initiative |
文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/281879 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jan H. van Heerden,Elizabeth L. Roos,Philip D. Adams,et al. Any Rain on Victoria Lake Is Only a Drop in the Bucket: A CGE Analysis of the Effects of Water Shortages on Food Security in Uganda,2020. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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