Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories

doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2176-1

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.1038/s41586-020-2176-1
	Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories
	Bhaskar, M. K.1; Riedinger, R.1; Machielse, B.1; Levonian, D. S.1; Nguyen, C. T.1; Knall, E. N.2; Park, H.1,3; Englund, D.4; Loncar, M.2; Sukachev, D. D.1; Lukin, M. D.1
	2020-03-23
发表期刊	NATURE
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
出版年	2020
卷号	580 期号:7804 页码:502-+
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA; Canada
英文关键词	An infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios-which may have markedly different, but equally plausible, dynamics-can underpin a given time-calibrated phylogeny of extant species, suggesting many previous studies have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence. Time-calibrated phylogenies of extant species (referred to here as ' extant timetrees' ) are widely used for estimating diversification dynamics(1). However, there has been considerable debate surrounding the reliability of these inferences(2-5) and, to date, this critical question remains unresolved. Here we clarify the precise information that can be extracted from extant timetrees under the generalized birth-death model, which underlies most existing methods of estimation. We prove that, for any diversification scenario, there exists an infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios that are equally likely to have generated any given extant timetree. These ' congruent' scenarios cannot possibly be distinguished using extant timetrees alone, even in the presence of infinite data. Importantly, congruent diversification scenarios can exhibit markedly different and yet similarly plausible dynamics, which suggests that many previous studies may have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence. We introduce identifiable and easily interpretable variables that contain all available information about past diversification dynamics, and demonstrate that these can be estimated from extant timetrees. We suggest that measuring and modelling these identifiable variables offers a more robust way to study historical diversification dynamics. Our findings also make it clear that palaeontological data will continue to be crucial for answering some macroevolutionary questions.
领域	地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000527521400001
WOS关键词	BIRTH-DEATH-MODELS ; MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES ; EXTINCTION ; RATES
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/281526
专题	地球科学资源环境科学气候变化
作者单位	1.Harvard Univ, Dept Phys, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 2.Harvard Univ, John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 3.Harvard Univ, Dept Chem & Chem Biol, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 4.MIT, Elect Res Lab, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bhaskar, M. K.,Riedinger, R.,Machielse, B.,et al. Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories[J]. NATURE,2020,580(7804):502-+.
APA	Bhaskar, M. K..,Riedinger, R..,Machielse, B..,Levonian, D. S..,Nguyen, C. T..,...&Lukin, M. D..(2020).Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories.NATURE,580(7804),502-+.
MLA	Bhaskar, M. K.,et al."Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories".NATURE 580.7804(2020):502-+.