Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL085311 |
Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework | |
Spring, Aaron1,2; Ilyina, Tatiana1 | |
2020-05-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | On interannual timescales the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by the response of the land and ocean carbon sinks to climate variability. Yet, it is unknown to what extent this variability limits the predictability of atmospheric CO2 variations. Using perfect-model Earth System Model simulations, we show that variations in atmospheric CO2 are potentially predictable for 3 years. We find a 2-year predictability horizon for global oceanic CO2 flux with longer regional predictability of up to 7 years. The 2-year predictability horizon of terrestrial CO2 flux originates in the tropics and midlatitudes. With the predictability of the isolated effects of land and ocean carbon sink on atmospheric CO2 of 5 and 12 years respectively, land dampens the overall predictability of atmospheric CO2 variations. Our research shows the potential of Earth System Model-based predictions to forecast multiyear variations in atmospheric CO2. |
英文关键词 | decadal predictability atmospheric CO2 carbon fluxes internal variability Earth System Model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000536639500054 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; DECADAL PREDICTABILITY ; OCEAN BIOGEOCHEMISTRY ; NATURAL VARIABILITY ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; DIOXIDE ; PREDICTION ; TRENDS ; LAND ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279928 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; 2.IMPRS, Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Int Max Plank Res Sch Earth Syst Modelling, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Spring, Aaron,Ilyina, Tatiana. Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(9). |
APA | Spring, Aaron,&Ilyina, Tatiana.(2020).Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(9). |
MLA | Spring, Aaron,et al."Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.9(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论