Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111642 |
Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal | |
José M. Belbute, Alfredo M. Pereira | |
2020-06-15 | |
发表期刊 | Energy Policy |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our reference projections suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030 and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary for emissions to be reduced by 39.9 Mt by 2050. Our results suggest that of these, only 8.4 Mt will result from the inertia of the national emissions system. The remaining reduction on emissions of 31.5 Mt of CO2 will require additional policy efforts. Accordingly, our results suggest that about 65.5% of the reductions necessary to achieve IPCC goals require deliberate policy efforts. Finally, the presence in the data of long memory with mean reversion suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure that these reductions in emissions are also permanent. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/276555 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | José M. Belbute, Alfredo M. Pereira. Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal[J]. Energy Policy,2020. |
APA | José M. Belbute, Alfredo M. Pereira.(2020).Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal.Energy Policy. |
MLA | José M. Belbute, Alfredo M. Pereira."Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal".Energy Policy (2020). |
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