Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4
	Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe
	admin
	2020-01-16
出版年	2020
国家	欧洲
领域	气候变化
英文摘要	A Bayesian method known as the Forecast Assimilation (FA) was used to calibrate and combine monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation outputs from seasonal dynamical forecast systems. The simple multimodel (SMM), a method that combines predictions with equal weights, was used as a benchmark. This research focuses on Europe and adjacent regions for predictions initialized in May and November, covering the boreal summer and winter months. The forecast quality of the FA and SMM as well as the single seasonal dynamical forecast systems was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic measures. A non-parametric bootstrap method was used to account for the sampling uncertainty of the forecast quality measures. We show that the FA performs as well as or better than the SMM in regions where the dynamical forecast systems were able to represent the main modes of climate covariability. An illustration with the near-surface temperature over North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and Middle-East in summer months associated with the well predicted first mode of climate covariability is offered. However, the main modes of climate covariability are not well represented in most situations discussed in this study as the seasonal dynamical forecast systems have limited skill when predicting the European climate. In these situations, the SMM performs better more often.
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来源平台	European Climate Prediction system
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/275820
专题	气候变化
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	admin. Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe,2020.