Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016GL072234 |
Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing | |
Tuel, A.1,2; Naveau, P.1,3; Ammann, C. M.1 | |
2017-03-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; France |
英文摘要 | Stratospheric sulfate injections from explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary natural climate forcing. Improved statistical models can now capture and simulate dynamical relationships in temporal variations of binary data. Leveraging these new techniques, the presented analysis clearly indicates that the number of large eruptions in the most recent records of explosive volcanism cannot be considered to be fully random. Including dynamical dependence in our models improves their ability to reproduce the historical record and thus forms a strong basis for skill in statistical prediction. Possible geophysical mechanisms behind the identified multidecadal variations are discussed, including variations in the observed length of day. |
英文关键词 | volcanic forcing climate variability statistical climatology extreme volcanic eruptions climate projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399762700030 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; ERUPTIONS ; LENGTH ; EARTH ; TEMPERATURE ; EARTHQUAKES ; ROTATION ; SIGNALS ; SOLAR |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27551 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.MIT, Ralph M Parsons Lab, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 3.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif Sur Yvette, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tuel, A.,Naveau, P.,Ammann, C. M.. Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(6). |
APA | Tuel, A.,Naveau, P.,&Ammann, C. M..(2017).Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(6). |
MLA | Tuel, A.,et al."Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.6(2017). |
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