Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL073443 |
Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume | |
Tsai, Chii-Yun1; Forest, Chris E.1,2,3; Pollard, David3 | |
2017-06-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Understanding ice sheet response to different sources of uncertainty in projecting the climate is essential for assessing long-term risk of sea level rise (SLR). The impact of uncertainty caused by internal climate variability (ICV) on future ice sheet changes has not been assessed explicitly. Here we estimate how ICV affects ice sheet projections using a three-dimensional ice sheet model driven by climate fields from two large ensembles of climate model simulations differing in initial climate states. We find that ICV causes approximately 2 mm uncertainty in the estimated SLR due to Greenland ice sheet mass loss during 1992-2011, which is nearly double the observational uncertainty. Additionally, SLR differences due to ICV are about 17% of the mean total change of SLR in 2100. This study highlights a critical need to assess uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss due to ICV to obtain robust estimates of both historical and future SLR. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000405854200045 |
WOS关键词 | MASS-BALANCE ; MODEL ; SENSITIVITY ; PROJECTIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; CMIP5 ; MELT |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26903 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tsai, Chii-Yun,Forest, Chris E.,Pollard, David. Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(12). |
APA | Tsai, Chii-Yun,Forest, Chris E.,&Pollard, David.(2017).Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(12). |
MLA | Tsai, Chii-Yun,et al."Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.12(2017). |
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